Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of heavy rain and severe weather across the Corn Belt and Gulf Coast with milder temperatures spreading through the U.S., more rain in the Canadian Prairies, and heat in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST

A couple of systems moving through the Midwest this week and next will keep the shower frequency going while reinforcing cooler air into the region. The combination should be fairly good for developing corn and soybeans, but will make it more difficult to harvest winter wheat. A big severe weather event is likely on Wednesday and could produce significant damage from Missouri to Indiana.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Several fronts are moving through the Central and Southern Plains this week, but with limited shower potential. A better chance will come this weekend into early next week with a system and front passing through. Cooler temperatures have moved into the region and are likely to stick around through the weekend and early next week, keeping stress low for areas that have had less frequent and intense rain. The lower rainfall frequency this week should promote harvest for winter wheat.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Reinforcing shots of cooler air continue to move through the Northern Plains this week and next, bringing periods of showers each time. Though the showers are not likely to be very intense, the frequency should help to maintain soil moisture. The milder air will keep stress down, but the lack of warmth will keep growth slow.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An upper-level trough, which has already brought through scattered showers and cooler air to the Canadian Prairies since late last week, continues for the next few days. Even after it leaves, scattered showers will move through the region through next week, keeping many areas wet. Though some flooding may occur in some places, conditions are overall favorable, though the lack of warmth is causing growth to be slow.

FRONTS, TROPICAL LOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN THE DELTA

Rainfall is a little more frequent in the Delta this week with a stalled front, more fronts coming in from the north, and a potential tropical low enhancing rain later this week. Though flooding may cause some damage across the south, particularly due to the tropical low, this should be a good combination for developing soybeans and cotton.

MORE RAIN COMING TO BRAZIL

A front is forecast to move through Brazil Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and another is forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. Any rain that falls will help some late corn and vegetative wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to be much help for corn. Colder air that will move in behind the second front may cause some frosts over wheat areas in the far south, but would not be damaging. Corn areas are not at much of a risk for frost though it will be cooler to limit stress on what remains of filling corn.

FRANCE HOTTER AND DRIER THIS WEEK AND NEXT

Though a few showers will go through at times, it is drier in most of Europe this week. Heat is building across Germany and Poland into the weekend, but France will see the most extended heat, which is likely well into next week. That could have some impact on wheat, but will have a more unfavorable effect on corn and other summer crops. Eastern areas of the continent are more likely to see some showers and cooler temperatures as fronts pass through going through next week.

CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers have been frequent in the Black Sea region over the last couple of months and continue this week as systems pass through rather frequently. Though the showers aren't unwelcome, some warmer temperatures and dryness would be preferred in many areas for maturing wheat and developing corn.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

A system continues to slowly move through eastern Australia over the next couple of days with scattered showers. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or so. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers continue in northeast China this week, being overall favorable for corn and soybean development. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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