Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of heavy rain across the Corn Belt and Gulf Coast with milder temperatures spreading through the U.S., more rain in the Canadian Prairies, and few other global weather issues are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST

A couple of systems moving through this week and next will keep the shower frequency going in the Midwest while reinforcing cooler air into the region. The combination should be fairly good for developing corn and soybeans, but will make it more difficult to harvest winter wheat. A big severe weather event is forecast for Wednesday and could produce significant damage from Missouri to Indiana.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Several fronts will move through the Central and Southern Plains this week, but with limited shower potential. A better chance will come this weekend into early next week with a system and front passing through. Cooler temperatures have moved into the region and are likely to stick around through the weekend and early next week, keeping stress low for areas that have had less frequent and intense rain. The lower rainfall frequency this week should promote harvest for winter wheat.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend and again on Monday with cooler air as well. Reinforcing shots of cooler air will move through several times this week and next, bringing periods of showers each time. Though the showers are not likely to be very intense, the frequency should help to maintain soil moisture. The milder air will keep stress down, but the lack of warmth will keep growth slow.

SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An upper-level trough continues to be reinforced this week, which has already brought through scattered showers and cooler air to the Canadian Prairies since late last week. The occasional showers and cooler air will be common through next week. Though frosts are not in the forecast, there may be a couple of spots that become cold enough overnight, producing some frosty temperatures. As long as that is not widespread, conditions are overall favorable, though the lack of warmth is causing growth to be slow.

FRONTS, TROPICAL LOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN THE DELTA

Rainfall will be a little more frequent in the Delta this week with a stalled front early, more fronts coming in from the north, and a potential tropical low enhancing rain in the south later this week. As long as flooding does not occur, this should be a good combination for developing soybeans and cotton.

MORE RAIN COMING TO BRAZIL

A front is forecast to move through Brazil on Friday and Saturday with more widespread showers. That is helping some late corn and vegetative wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to be much help for corn. Colder air that will move in may cause some frosts over wheat areas in the far south, but would not be damaging. Corn areas are not at much of a risk for frost though it will be cooler to limit stress on what remains of filling corn.

FRANCE HOTTER AND DRIER THIS WEEK

Though a few showers will go through at times, it'll be drier in most of Europe this week. Heat will build across Germany and Poland, but France will see the most extended heat into the weekend and maybe even next week. That could have some impact on wheat, but will have a more unfavorable effect on corn and other summer crops. Eastern areas of the continent are more likely to see some showers and cooler temperatures as fronts pass through going through next week.

CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers have been frequent in the Black Sea region over the last couple of months and continue this week as systems pass through rather frequently. Though the showers aren't unwelcome, some warmer temperatures and dryness would be preferred in many areas for maturing wheat and developing corn.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

A system moved through western Australia over the weekend with scattered showers. The system will slowly move through eastern areas this week with additional showers. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or so. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers moved through northeast China over the weekend, which continues this week, being overall favorable for corn and soybean development. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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