DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the middle of the continent and will hang around through most of next week, continuing a rather busy weather pattern.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will start to lift northeast out of the country at the end of next week while another trough moves down into the West. A ridge will start to develop over the South next weekend, shifting the pattern once again.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of systems will move across the northern tier of the country mid-late next week and again next weekend, spreading scattered showers.

Temperatures will continue to be mild across the north, but could rise across the south next weekend as the ridge starts to build in.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...116 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA, AND DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...14 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...ROCKFORD, IL 2.34 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the middle of the continent and will hang around through most of next week, continuing a rather busy weather pattern. The trough will start to lift northeast out of the country at the end of next week while another trough moves down into the West. A ridge will start to develop over the South next weekend, shifting the pattern once again.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of systems will move across the northern tier of the country mid-late next week and again next weekend, spreading scattered showers.

Temperatures will continue to be mild across the north, but could rise across the south next weekend as the ridge starts to build in.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region through next week, but with lower frequency and intensity than we have seen this week. Cooler temperatures will stick around well into next week and may stay mild into late June. The recent and incoming rain will help to raise soil moisture and ease drought, with limited stress from the milder temperatures, leading to good growing conditions overall.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cold front will settle across the south on Friday with another front moving through on Saturday to meet it and continue showers across the south on Sunday and Monday.

Spottier showers will follow next week and will be much more hit-and-miss than we saw this week. Recent rainfall has done a good job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the effects of drought for a lot of the region, though dryness is still a concern in a lot of areas. Heat earlier this week is starting to get wiped out by the coming cold fronts, with cooler air in place this weekend and early next week reducing stress. The areas of frequent and heavy rainfall may be reducing quality and slowing harvest for wheat, though.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Rounds of heavy rain and severe weather take a break on Friday, but move through with another system this weekend, resulting in a boost in soil moisture, but also some flooding and storm damage. Though a little less frequent than this week, showers will continue in a few waves next week. Some areas will inevitably be missed, but those are few, and some are also getting hit too often, which is resulting in some more flooding. But overall, this is a good pattern for frequent precipitation for developing corn and soybeans. Temperatures are falling behind a front and another front moving through this weekend will bring temperatures below-normal for much of next week, easing stress. The rainfall may be impacting quality and slowing harvest for wheat, though.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front is moving into the Delta on Friday and will stall through the weekend. Another will meet it on Sunday and continue showers across the south into early next week. That will get more rain to move through, maintaining fairly high soil moisture and continuing to reduce the long-term deficits that still remain after a very busy last month. That is great news for developing soybeans and cotton, though some flooding may be possible in some areas, too.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): An upper-level trough in the region will continue periods of rainfall through next week, but there will be some breaks between waves of showers. Though there may be some excess and flooding issues, the rainfall is helpful for most areas that have seed in the ground. It appears producers have done a good job of continuing to plant during the rainfall, but have had a hard time finishing up and the last remaining fields are behind schedule, exposing them to some early frost risks in late summer and early fall.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front has stalled in south-central Brazil and will continue showers through the weekend. Another front is forecast to move through late next week. That will help to boost soil moisture for filling corn and wheat establishment. Some early corn is heading toward maturity though, and the rain will not be helpful for that.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be largely dry into next week despite a couple of fronts moving through. However, recent rainfall last weekend should have helped to boost soil moisture for winter wheat. And though it may have caused some delay in the remaining corn and soybean harvest, that is a slow process that takes through July anyway.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Systems have been moving through Europe this week with widespread precipitation that continues in the east through the weekend. Some areas across France are not getting much rainfall, which may be a little concerning for developing corn and other summer crops. A system or two moving across the far north may spread a few showers into the continent next week, but will be spotty. Otherwise, good conditions are found across a lot of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue across the region through next week, especially across the west which will see higher coverage and intensity. Rainfall has been rather frequent this spring and now into the summer. That is keeping soil moisture high, but may be reducing quality for some winter wheat as areas in the south head toward maturity. The wet weather has also made it tough to complete corn planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. Another system is bringing through scattered showers to the east this weekend. Another system will move through next week with widespread showers as well. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Overall favorable conditions continue in central and northeast China for developing corn and soybeans. Some wheat and canola areas have seen a little rain, but drier conditions continue for more areas, helping harvest to advance. Some areas of showers will favor the northeast into next week, continuing to be mostly favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday-Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, especially south.

Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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