Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain that will be heavy with areas of severe weather, particularly across the Corn Belt, with cooler temperatures spreading through the country, recent heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, and few other global weather issues are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

WAVES OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Rounds of heavy rain and severe weather continue for the Midwest into the weekend, resulting in a boost in soil moisture, but also some flooding and storm damage. Though a little less frequent than this week, showers will continue in a few waves next week. Some areas will inevitably be missed, and some are also getting hit too often, which is resulting in some more flooding. But overall, this is a good pattern for frequent precipitation for developing corn and soybeans. Warm temperatures this week are falling behind a front moving through on Thursday, and another front moving through this weekend will bring temperatures below normal for much of next week, easing stress. The rainfall may be impacting quality and slowing harvest for wheat, though.

CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It has been a busy week of weather in the Central and Southern Plains so far, and another system is moving through on Thursday with heavy rain in eastern Nebraska. Its front will tend to settle across the south on Friday, with another front moving through on Saturday to meet it and continue showers across the south on Sunday and Monday. Spottier showers will follow next week and will be much more hit-and-miss. Recent rainfall has done a good job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the effects of drought for a lot of the region, though dryness is still a concern in a lot of areas. Heat earlier this week is starting to get wiped out by the coming cold fronts, with cooler air in place this weekend and early next week, reducing stress. The areas of frequent and heavy rainfall may be reducing quality and slowing harvest for wheat, though.

MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the Northern Plains through next week, but with lower frequency and intensity than we have seen over the last several days. Cooler temperatures will stick around well into next week and may stay mild into late June. The recent and incoming rain will help to raise soil moisture and ease drought, with limited stress from the milder temperatures, leading to good growing conditions overall.

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, BUT WITH LESS INTENSITY

Scattered showers and severe weather have been moving through the Canadian Prairies since the weekend. An upper-level trough in the region will continue periods of rainfall for the rest of this week and next week as well, but the frequency of rainfall will be lower with time. Though there may be some damage and flooding, the rainfall is helpful for most areas that have seed in the ground. However, planting progress remains behind the average progress in all three provinces, and the continued rainfall will make it more difficult to finish up.

FRONTS TO STALL IN THE DELTA

A front will move into the Delta on Friday and stall through the weekend. Another will meet it on Sunday and continue showers into early next week. That will get more rain to move through, maintaining fairly high soil moisture and continuing to reduce the long-term drought. That is great news for developing soybeans and cotton, though some flooding may be possible in some areas, too.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN BRAZIL

A front has stalled in south-central Brazil and will continue showers through the weekend. That will help boost soil moisture for filling corn and wheat establishment. Some early corn is heading toward maturity, though, and the rain will not be helpful for that.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EUROPE

Systems continue to move through Europe this week with widespread precipitation through the weekend. Some areas across France and Spain may not get much rainfall, which may be a little concerning for developing corn and other summer crops. Otherwise, good conditions are found across a lot of the continent. Spotty rainfall may come into southwestern areas later next week on a limited basis.

SHOWERY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, ESPECIALLY WEST

Scattered showers will continue across the Black Sea region through next week, especially across the west, which will see higher coverage and intensity. Rainfall has been rather frequent this spring and now into the summer. That is keeping soil moisture high, but may be reducing quality for some winter wheat as areas in the south head toward maturity. The wet weather has also made it tough to complete corn planting.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

Many areas in Australia have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. Another system is bringing through scattered showers to the west on Thursday and will move to the east this weekend. At least one more system will move through next week as well. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Overall favorable conditions continue in central and northeast China for developing corn and soybeans. Some wheat and canola areas have seen some rain, but drier conditions occurred for more areas, helping harvest to advance. Some areas of showers will favor the northeast into next week, continuing to be mostly favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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