DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...115 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...25 AT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...CORPUS CHRISTI, TX 0.55 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There are troughs in central Canada, the Southwest, and North Pacific. The central Canada trough continues east through Saturday. Another ridge is forecast to develop behind it for the second week of June, though the Pacific trough moving into the West this weekend could make that ridge somewhat short-lived and the southwest trough will provide opportunity for more precipitation as it moves into the Plains and Midwest. The western trough will likely move into the middle of the continent next weekend, pushing the ridge to the East.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The western trough will produce one or maybe two systems next week, targeting the Northern Plains and adjacent areas with precipitation. Earlier showers across the Midwest may continue through the middle of next week as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent heavy rain has helped to increase soil moisture and reduce drought in the region. A busy pattern is going to keep those shower and thunderstorm chances continuing through next week with daily chances as multiple fronts, systems, and disturbances move through. Temperatures should be overall mild into next week, but fall later next week, keeping stress low.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region through next week as multiple systems, fronts and disturbances combine to produce daily shower and thunderstorm chances. The recent and forecast precipitation will help with boosting soil moisture and reducing drought and impacts for summer crops, though winter wheat is heading toward maturity and could actually use some hotter and drier conditions for harvest.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is dragging a cold front through the region over the next couple of days, producing areas of showers and thunderstorms. The front will stall in the western end of the region while it will be more of a passing feature in the east. More disturbances moving through next week should add to the rain potential and some areas in the west may end up with too much, like in Missouri where flooding has been a problem over the last month. We may still see some areas getting missed that would be somewhat of a concern for developing drought in a few unlucky spots, but the forecast favors an active pattern for the second half of June and beyond, limiting the overall impact of recent dryness.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): The recent run of rainfall has done a great job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the impacts of drought. Even though large deficits still remain in some areas, especially in the north, the effects of drought have been significantly reduced. Rainfall should return this weekend with a stalling front nearby, which may mean several rounds of showers through next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent heavy rain in Alberta has caused a pause in planting progress while areas to the east were able to get some work done between showers. Despite that, planting progress is still behind. Breaks in the weather are going to be short-lived as round after round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. Flooding may be a problem in several areas, and those with planting yet to do will have a difficult time doing so. Otherwise, the frequent rainfall is great for maintaining or improving soil moisture.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): It has been very dry lately in much of Brazil, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. Though some showers may move through on Monday, drier conditions continue to be unfavorable for filling corn and wheat establishment. If the front can stick around, there may be more widespread rainfall mid-late next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Overall dry conditions have allowed for the continued slow progress of harvest for corn and soybeans, as well as planting for winter wheat. Some showers moved across the south and central on Thursday and continue on Friday. Another system will move through over the weekend with scattered showers, which will help to moisten soils at least a little bit for winter wheat establishment. It may delay harvest a little, though.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Multiple systems have moved through the continent this week and some more showers are forecast into next week, bringing through widespread areas of rainfall which will help to soften soils after last week's hot and dry conditions caused stress. Another drier stretch is likely by the end of next week, which may cause some higher temperatures in parts of the continent as well. Despite that, no significant areas of concern are noted at this time.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Systems moving through Europe will continue to produce some showers into next week, mostly for western areas that are somewhat drier. It may be a little drier in the east for a bit and temperatures are rising, which would be more favorable after a wet and cool spring.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It has been somewhat active in Australia the last few weeks, providing scattered showers that have improved soil moisture in a lot of areas. A system or two is forecast to bring some showers next week as well, favoring winter wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation are giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino. That becomes especially true during the second half of winter into early spring, which may have a more damaging impact later this year yet.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Most areas have good soil moisture and some areas have too much in the south for winter crops that are maturing and awaiting harvest. A stronger cold front has moved through northern areas with a burst of cooler temperatures. Additional showers will be possible at times over the primary corn and soybean areas through next week with generally favorable weather.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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