Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain that will hit a lot of drought areas in the U.S., a slight decrease for the rainfall forecast for the eastern Midwest, and recent rainfall in Europe and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RAINFALL INCREASING FOR THE MIDWEST, SLIGHTLY DRIER EAST

A system in the Northern Plains begins to push eastward into the Midwest on Wednesday and especially Thursday. Though showers will be more consistent in the west, forecasts have the front progressing into the east with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as well. We may still see some areas in the east getting missed that would be somewhat of a concern for developing drought in a few unlucky spots, but the forecast favors additional rounds of precipitation throughout next week and beyond, limiting the overall impact of dryness.

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system in the Northern Plains has been producing rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Central and Southern Plains this week. Though the system pushes eastward on Wednesday, showers will likely continue along its remnant boundaries through the weekend and additional systems moving in could extend those showers well into next week as well. That will help with boosting soil moisture and reducing drought and impacts for summer crops, though winter wheat is heading toward maturity and could actually use some hotter and drier conditions for harvest. Some areas of severe weather will also be possible for the next week.

HEAVY RAIN EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SHOWERS CONTINUE

A stalled system is finally pushing eastward and out of the Northern Plains on Wednesday after dumping a lot of rainfall the last several days. Behind the system, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend with more rounds next week. The recent and forecast rainfall is helping to boost soil moisture and ease stress from last week's hot and dry conditions.

SYSTEM FINALLY LEAVING CANADIAN PRAIRIES BUT SHOWERS CONTINUE

A big system has brought multiple rounds of rainfall through the Canadian Prairies since the weekend, producing areas of heavy rain, especially across Alberta and far western Saskatchewan. To the east, showers have been more scattered, allowing producers to continue fieldwork to some degree. But producers in Alberta have had to stop because of the consistent, heavy rain. The system will push east on Wednesday. But even after the system leaves, scattered showers should develop as a new system takes its place on Friday into the weekend. Though flooding has occurred and the remaining planting has been stalled in Alberta, the boost in soil moisture is extremely noteworthy.

DELTA GETTING A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS, MORE ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND

A front finally pushed southward and out of the Delta on Tuesday, which will bring about several dry days to allow for some areas to dry out. The recent run of rainfall has done a great job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the impacts of drought. Even though large deficits still remain in some areas, especially in the north, the effects of drought have been significantly reduced. Rainfall may return this weekend with a stalling front nearby.

WIDESPREAD DRYNESS IN BRAZIL, SOME SHOWERS RETURNING

It has been very dry lately in much of Brazil, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. Though some showers may move through early next week, drier conditions continue to be unfavorable for filling corn and wheat establishment. Models are keying in on another system for late next week that could bring about more widespread rainfall.

SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EUROPE

Multiple systems are moving through Europe this week, bringing through widespread areas of rainfall, which will help to soften soils after last week's hot and dry conditions caused stress. The active weather likely continues into next week before going through another drier stretch. No significant areas of concern are noted at this time.

SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, ESPECIALLY WEST

Systems moving through Europe may have a hard time producing precipitation in the Black Sea region this week, but will favor western areas with some decent rainfall. After a pretty wet and cool spring, most areas could use some warmth and sunshine. The showers may stick around for the first half of June, but temperatures are gradually rising. Depending on how hard the showers fall, some quality issues may be found in wheat.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

A system scraped is moving through eastern Australia this week and another system or two is forecast to bring some showers next week as well, favoring winter wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation are giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino. That becomes especially true during the second half of winter into early spring, which may have a more damaging impact later this year yet.

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

Most areas in China have good soil moisture and some areas have too much in the south for winter crops that are trying to mature. A stronger cold front will move through northern areas over the next day or so with a burst of cooler temperatures and some showers, keeping stresses low, but also slowing down crop growth.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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