DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...111 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW TUE...23 AT 14 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID AND STANLEY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...DALLAS/FORT-WORTH, TX 2.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in central Canada with a troughs in the Canadian Prairies, Southwest, and Pacific. The Prairies trough is breaking down the ridge and will move east through Canada the rest of the week. After the northern trough moves east, another ridge is forecast to develop behind it for the second week of June, though the Pacific trough moving into the West this weekend could make that ridge somewhat short-lived.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on how far south to push a cold front next week and where to place rain next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front is forecast to be stalled out from the western Midwest to the Southeast early next week, continuing showers along that arc for a few days.

Another front in the Northern Plains will meet up with that front around the middle of next week to continue showers. And another system may push through more of the continent later next week and weekend, spreading showers to other areas as well. Temperatures will generally be near to above normal, though some cooler temperatures will move into the West and Northern Plains later next week and weekend with the trough.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled system is finally pushing eastward on Wednesday after dumping a lot of rainfall the last several days. Behind the system, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend with more rounds next week. The recent and forecast rainfall is helping to boost soil moisture and ease stress from last week's hot and dry conditions.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system in the Northern Plains has been producing rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region this week. Though the system pushes eastward on Wednesday, showers will likely continue along its remnant boundaries through the weekend and additional systems moving in could extend those showers well into next week as well. That will help with boosting soil moisture and reducing drought and impacts for summer crops, though winter wheat is heading toward maturity and could actually use some hotter and drier conditions for harvest. Some areas of severe weather will also be possible for the next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system in the Northern Plains begins to push eastward into the region on Wednesday and especially Thursday. Though showers will be more consistent in the west, forecasts have the front progressing into the east with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as well. We may still see some areas getting missed that would be somewhat of a concern for developing drought in a few unlucky spots, but the forecast favors additional rounds of precipitation throughout next week and beyond, limiting the overall impact of dryness.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front finally pushed southward on Tuesday, which will bring about several dry days to allow for some areas to dry out. The recent run of rainfall has done a great job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the impacts of drought. Even though large deficits still remain in some areas, especially in the north, the effects of drought have been significantly reduced. Rainfall may return this weekend with a stalling front nearby.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A big system has brought multiple rounds of rainfall through the region since the weekend, producing areas of heavy rain, especially across Alberta and far western Saskatchewan. To the east, showers have been more scattered, allowing producers to continue fieldwork to some degree. But producers in Alberta have had to stop because of the consistent, heavy rain. The system will push east on Wednesday. But even after the system leaves, scattered showers should develop as a new system takes its place on Friday into the weekend. Though flooding has occurred and the remaining planting has been stalled in Alberta, the boost in soil moisture is extremely noteworthy.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): It has been very dry lately in much of Brazil, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. Though some showers may move through early next week, drier conditions continue to be unfavorable for filling corn and wheat establishment. Models are keying in on another system for late next week that could bring about more widespread rainfall.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions have allowed for the continued slow progress of harvest for corn and soybeans, as well as planting for winter wheat. Some isolated showers will be possible this week across the west, and a few more will go by with a front across the south on Thursday. Another system will move through over the weekend with scattered showers, which will help to moisten soils at least a little bit for winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Multiple systems are moving through this week, bringing through widespread areas of rainfall, which will help to soften soils after last week's hot and dry conditions caused stress. The active weather likely continues into next week before going through another drier stretch. No significant areas of concern are noted at this time.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Systems moving through Europe may have a hard time producing precipitation in the region this week, but will favor western areas with some decent rainfall. After a pretty wet and cool spring, most areas could use some warmth and sunshine. The showers may stick around for the first half of June, but temperatures are gradually rising. Depending on how hard the showers fall, some quality issues may be found in wheat.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system scraped is moving through the east this week and another system or two is forecast to bring some showers next week as well, favoring winter wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation are giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino. That becomes especially true during the second half of winter into early spring, which may have a more damaging impact later this year yet.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Most areas have good soil moisture and some areas have too much in the south for winter crops that are trying to mature. A stronger cold front will move through northern areas over the next day or so with a burst of cooler temperatures and some showers, keeping stresses low, but also slowing down crop growth.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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