DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a strong ridge in central Canada with a trough in the Southeast and another in the West. The ridge will remain strong through the weekend. The Southeast trough will slowly push off the coast this weekend. The western trough will be forced northward into Canada this weekend and early next week.

This trough will break down the ridge, allowing disturbances to flow through Canada again.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge could reform over the central U.S. by next weekend, and continue to flex at times through the middle of June, which may be a concern for heat and dryness in the Corn Belt.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have different ideas on precipitation coverage and placement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will continue in the Canadian Prairies early next week, getting pushed eastward later next week through the Corn Belt with showers. We could see another system move into the Plains next weekend, but that has low confidence. So does a potential tropical system in the Gulf later next week.

Temperatures are generally warmer across the north and milder across the south.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...108 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...23 AT 6 MILES NE OF GREEN VALLEY LAKE, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...LITTLE ROCK, AR 3.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a strong ridge in central Canada with a trough in the Southeast and another in the West. The ridge will remain strong through the weekend. The Southeast trough will slowly push off the coast this weekend. The western trough will be forced northward into Canada this weekend and early next week.

This trough will break down the ridge, allowing disturbances to flow through Canada again. However, the ridge could reform over the central U.S. by next weekend and continue to flex at times through the middle of June, which may be a concern for heat and dryness in the Corn Belt.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have different ideas on precipitation coverage and placement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will continue in the Canadian Prairies early next week, getting pushed eastward later next week through the Corn Belt with showers. We could see another system move into the Plains next weekend, but that has low confidence. So does a potential tropical system in the Gulf later next week.

Temperatures are generally warmer across the north and milder across the south.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Above-normal temperatures continue to give a boost to plant growth through next week. Showers will increase as a system moves into the region this weekend and early next week. Models have been increasing the coverage and intensity of the showers, which would be more beneficial for drought reduction and plant growth.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A band of moderate showers continues to slowly push north on Friday. Additional showers will develop this weekend and next week as a system passes by very slowly to the north. Overall, this is a favorable pattern for getting precipitation into the region even though not all areas are likely to be hit by good precipitation. Rain may be too late for winter crops, but will help pastures, forages, and summer crops.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions are expected for a lot of areas into next week, allowing for a lot of fieldwork to be completed and planting to finish up. Missouri and parts of the far west will remain somewhat active into next week, but overall drier conditions are expected. Fronts will start to move through the region around the middle of next week and bring some showers through the region. If these fronts do not bring widespread rainfall, there could be some drier areas developing as temperatures largely stay at or above normal through next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front has been waffling around the region since last week, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. That front will remain active through Monday before likely getting pushed southward into the Gulf next week. The frequent rainfall has brought risks of flooding, but is great for reducing drought and building deep soil moisture for the summer crop.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers have been going through the west over the last couple of days, but many areas have been warm and dry. This combination has helped to accelerate fieldwork this week that has been behind schedule all season. However, a system parking itself in the region this weekend will produce widespread rainfall through the middle of next week, giving a shorter window for making significant progress. However, it will also bring some needed rainfall, especially to western areas that may have to deal with a bit of flooding.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Though a few showers will go through southern areas on Friday, dry weather is expected through next week, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. This is not unusual for corn, as most areas are fully entrenched in the dry season. But southern wheat areas require fronts moving up from Argentina to supply good moisture over the winter.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. It has been much drier recently, good for doing fieldwork at a normal pace, but wheat areas are getting a little too dry and need some rain. Very little is in the forecast for the next week, unfavorable for wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Hot and dry conditions in western Europe have been baking areas around France. That could have some impact on wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to have a negative impact, especially since soil moisture has been overall favorable. However, the heat could be stressful for corn and other summer crops which will rapidly advance as conditions remain drier. Chances for rain increase continent-wide this weekend and especially next week as the pattern breaks down and allows multiple systems through the continent. That would be very favorable if it verifies.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system has moved in this week, bringing scattered showers and much cooler temperatures through early next week. Frosts are a risk for some far northern areas, but are unlikely to have much of an impact to production even though wheat is vulnerable there. The cooler and rainy conditions would be somewhat unfavorable for corn and other summer crops, which could use some heat and sunshine. Showers get more isolated next week while temperatures slowly rise.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought many days of scattered showers and pockets of heavy rain to the east this week. The upcoming pattern favors a few more systems scraping by the southern end of the country through the first half of June, bringing some needed showers for winter wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation are giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Above-normal temperatures are building into the central and northeast, but won't last long as a strong cold front moves through next week and brings in some cooler air for the central and especially the northeast. Additional showers may form along the front for later next week as it stalls in the region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal north and near normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.