Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain that will hit a lot of drought areas in the U.S., some heat and dryness in Europe, and rainfall in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

DRIER IN THE MIDWEST

Some showers moved through the Midwest earlier this week, especially across the south where some heavy amounts and flooding occurred. Drier conditions are expected for a lot of areas into next week, allowing for a lot of fieldwork to be completed and planting to finish up. Missouri and parts of the far west will remain somewhat active into next week, but overall drier conditions are expected. Fronts will start to move through the region around the middle of next week and bring some showers through the region. If these fronts do not bring widespread rainfall, there could be some drier areas developing as temperatures largely stay at or above normal through next week.

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A band of moderate showers is pushing northward through the Central and Southern Plains after bringing widespread rain to southern areas on Wednesday. Additional showers will develop this weekend as a system passes by to the north and should extend into next week to some degree as well. Overall, this is a favorable pattern for getting precipitation into the region even though not all areas are likely to be hit by good precipitation. Rain may be too late for winter crops, but will help pastures, forages and summer crops.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Above-normal temperatures continue to give a boost to plant growth through next week in the Northern Plains. Showers will increase over the next couple of days, being more widespread this weekend into early next week as a system moves through. Showers will be scattered though, missing some areas and blessing others.

SHOWERS IN WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES BECOMING HEAVIER THIS WEEKEND

Some showers have been going through the western Canadian Prairies over the last couple of days, but many areas have been warm and dry. This combination has helped to accelerate fieldwork this week that has been behind all season. More widespread rainfall is likely this weekend into early next week, giving a shorter window for making significant progress, but then increasing soil moisture for some areas that have started to dry out a little too much, especially in Alberta.

STALLED FRONT CONTINUING DAILY SHOWERS IN THE DELTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

A front has been waffling around the Delta since last week, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. That front will remain active through the weekend before likely getting pushed southward into the Gulf next week when drier conditions take over, allowing some wet areas to drain. The frequent rainfall has brought risks of flooding, but is great for reducing drought and building deep soil moisture for the summer crop.

DRIER IN BRAZIL

Dry weather is expected to continue in Brazil through next week, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. This is not unusual for corn, as most areas are fully entrenched in the dry season. But southern wheat areas require fronts moving up from Argentina to supply good moisture over the winter. Very little to none is in the forecast over the next couple of weeks.

HOT AND DRY IN WESTERN EUROPE, RELIEF COMING

Hot and dry conditions continue in western Europe for the next couple of days. That could have some impact on wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to have a negative impact, especially since soil moisture has been overall favorable in these western areas. However, the heat could be stressful for corn and other summer crops which will rapidly advance as conditions remain drier. Chances for rain increase continent-wide this weekend and especially next week, which would be very favorable if they verify.

COOL AND SHOWERY FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A system has moved into the Black Sea region this week, bringing scattered showers and cooler temperatures through early next week. Frosts are a risk for some far northern areas over the next couple of mornings, but are unlikely to have much of an impact to production even though wheat is vulnerable there. The cooler and rainy conditions would be somewhat unfavorable for corn and other summer crops, which could use some heat and sunshine. Showers get more isolated next week while temperatures slowly rise.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

A system is finally moving off the coast into the Pacific after bringing many days of scattered showers to eastern Australia this week. The upcoming pattern favors a few more systems scraping by the southern end of the country, bringing some needed showers for winter wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation are giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

Above-normal temperatures are building into central and northeast China, favorable for some areas to dry out after recent heavy rains. Spotty showers will move through with a cold front next week, but colder air will move into the northeast, unfavorable for corn and soybean development.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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