DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...102 AT 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLAR, MT

LOW TUE...24 AT 2 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CRESCENT, OR, AND HOLDEN VILLAGE, WA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...ASHEVILLE, NC 3.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge building in central Canada with a trough in Texas and another in the West. The ridge will strengthen this week, creating a block in the pattern. The Texas trough will move south of the ridge across the Southeast by the weekend. The western trough will sit a few days in the West before being forced northward into Canada this weekend and early next week. This trough will break down the ridge, allowing disturbances to flow through Canada again for early June. However, the ridge could reform over the central U.S. by next weekend, which may be a concern for heat and dryness in the Plains.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have different ideas on precipitation coverage and placement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The southern front is likely to remain active through at least the weekend, but could dry out afterward next week. A system will move through the Canadian Prairies early next week and may bring showers to the northern tier as it moves eastward. Showers in the Plains will continue this weekend and early next week, but could dry out by the middle of next week. Temperatures will be cooler across the South and East, but stay warm across the north.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures have finally risen above normal and will continue to be so through next week. Showers will increase over the next couple of days, being more widespread this weekend into early next week as a system moves through. Showers will be scattered though, missing some areas and blessing others.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers will increase this week as systems move through the south and across the Rockies, bringing some potential for widespread rain to drier areas in the west and improving soil moisture for some areas in the east through early next week. Overall, this is a favorable pattern for getting precipitation into the region even though not all areas are likely to be hit by good precipitation. Rain may be too late for winter crops, but will help pastures, forages, and summer crops.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers will be possible this week across the south as a front lifts northward into the region briefly before being pushed back down by another front across the north with a few more showers on Wednesday. Otherwise, some drier conditions are likely for the next week outside of Missouri, which will stay somewhat active. The drier conditions will be favorable for finishing up some fieldwork, but could lead to some growing dry spots if it continues through next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front has been waffling around the region since last week, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. That front will remain active throughout the rest of this week and weekend before likely getting pushed southward into the Gulf next week. The frequent rainfall has brought risks of flooding, but is great for reducing drought and building deep soil moisture for the summer crop.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry while temperatures increased. The combination of heat and drier conditions will help to accelerate fieldwork that has been behind this season. Alberta may see some showers this week, but eastern areas are likely to be drier. More widespread rainfall is likely this weekend into early next week, giving a shorter window for making significant progress.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Some showers fell over the south over the last few days, hitting a few wheat and southern safrinha corn areas, but the rain that fell was much more isolated than forecast. Dry weather should follow through next week, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. This is not unusual for corn, as most areas are fully entrenched in the dry season. But southern wheat areas require fronts moving up from Argentina to supply good moisture over the winter.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. It has been much drier recently, good for doing fieldwork at a normal pace, but wheat areas are starting to get a little too dry and need some rain. Very little is in the forecast for the next week, and models have been doing a poor job at the forecast beyond the next 5 days; promising rain that does not show up.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Hot and dry conditions continue in western Europe for the next several days. That could have some impact on wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to have a negative impact, especially since soil moisture is overall favorable in these western areas. However, the heat could be stressful for corn and other summer crops which will rapidly advance as conditions remain drier. Chances for rain increase this weekend and especially next week, which would be very favorable if they verify.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system is moving in this week, bringing scattered showers and cooler temperatures through early next week. Frosts are a risk for some far northern areas later this week, but are unlikely to have much of an impact to production even though wheat is vulnerable there. The cooler and rainy conditions would be somewhat unfavorable for corn and other summer crops, which could use some heat and sunshine.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved into eastern areas this weekend, which continue for the next couple of days as a system slowly moves eastward into the Pacific. The upcoming pattern favors a few more systems scraping by the southern end of the country, bringing some needed showers for wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation is giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers went through central China over the weekend and the Northeast over the last couple of days. Above-normal temperatures are favored by the end of the week and the combination with a few drier spots could produce some early stress for corn and soybeans. Wheat should be somewhat immune as the crop heads toward maturity.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers southwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.