DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...106 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...24 AT 34 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MOBILE, AL 1.78 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge building in central Canada with a trough in the Southwest and another in the West. The ridge will strengthen this week, creating a block in the pattern. The Southwest trough will move south of the ridge across the Southeast by the weekend. The Western trough will sit a few days in the West before being forced northward into Canada this weekend. The ridge will break down next week, allowing disturbances to flow through Canada again for early June. However, the ridge could reform over the central U.S. by later next week, which may be a concern for heat and dryness in the Plains.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The southern front is likely to remain active through at least the weekend, but could dry out afterward next week. Showers in the Plains will continue this weekend and early next week, but could dry out by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will be cooler across the South and East, but stay warm across the north. That could spread to more of the Plains by the end of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers went through over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry as temperatures rose well above normal. Temperatures will continue to be quite warm this week. Showers will likely increase across the west, but will have a tough time reaching the eastern Dakotas, though will be possible this weekend and early next week. A lack of rainfall may increase drought for some drier areas in the east while western areas have chances for drought improvement.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers went through over the long holiday weekend, being more widespread across Oklahoma and Texas, but very isolated to non-existent for Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. Showers will increase this week as systems move through the south and across the Rockies, bringing some potential for widespread rain to drier areas in the west and improving soil moisture for some areas in the east. Overall, this is a favorable pattern for getting precipitation into the region. That may be too late for winter crops, but will help pastures, forages, and summer crops.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system went through the region during the first half of the weekend with scattered showers, especially for eastern areas that saw some heavy rain. Isolated showers filled in behind the system for the second half of the holiday weekend. Some additional showers will be possible this week across the south as a front lifts northward into the region briefly before being pushed back down. Additional showers may be possible Tuesday and Wednesday from another front pushing the southern front back south. Otherwise, some drier conditions are likely for the next week outside of Missouri, which will stay somewhat active. The drier conditions will be favorable for finishing up some fieldwork, but could lead to some growing dry spots if it continues into next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front has been waffling around the region since last week, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. That front will remain active throughout the rest of this week and weekend before likely getting pushed southward into the Gulf next week. The frequent rainfall has brought risks of flooding, but is great for reducing drought and building deep soil moisture for the summer crop.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry while temperatures increased. The combination of heat and drier conditions will help to accelerate fieldwork that has been behind this season. Alberta may see some showers this week, but eastern areas are likely to be drier. More widespread rainfall is likely this weekend into early next week, giving a shorter window for making significant progress.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Some showers fell over the south over the last few days, hitting a few wheat and southern safrinha corn areas, but the rain that fell was much more isolated than forecast. Showers will end on Tuesday, likely followed by dry weather for the rest of the week, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. This is not unusual for corn, as most areas are fully planted in the dry season. But southern wheat areas require fronts moving up from Argentina to supply good moisture over the winter.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. It has been much drier recently, good for doing fieldwork at a normal pace, but wheat areas are starting to get a little too dry and need some rain. Very little is in the forecast for the next week, and models have been doing a poor job at the forecast beyond the next 5 days; promising rain that does not show up.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): It was dry over the weekend while temperatures have been rising, especially in the west. Some heat could have an impact on wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to have a negative impact, especially since soil moisture is overall favorable in these western areas. However, the heat could be stressful for corn and other summer crops which will rapidly advance as conditions remain drier. Chances for rain increase this weekend and next week, which would be very favorable if they verify.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some isolated showers fell over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. However, a system is moving in this week, bringing scattered showers and cooler temperatures throughout the rest of the week.

Frosts are a risk for some far northern areas later this week, but are unlikely to have much of an impact to production even though wheat is vulnerable there. The cooler and rainy conditions would be somewhat unfavorable for corn and other summer crops, which could use some heat and sunshine.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved into eastern areas this weekend, which continue for the next couple of days as a system slowly moves eastward into the Pacific. The upcoming pattern favors a few more systems scraping by the southern end of the country, bringing some needed showers for wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation is giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers went through central China over the weekend and a few more will move through the Northeast over the next couple of days. Above-normal temperatures are favored by the end of the week and the combination with a few drier spots could produce some early stress for corn and soybeans. Wheat should be somewhat immune as the crop heads toward maturity.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures rising above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures rising above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north, scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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