Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple periods of rain that will hit a lot of drought areas in the U.S. through the end of May, a return to dryness in Europe, and recent rainfall in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system will move through the Midwest on Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Some isolated showers may follow it over the weekend and a front to the south may lift northward with showers for southern areas mid-late next week. Temperatures will be increasing this weekend, getting some summer warmth into the region and allowing some wet soils to dry out across the north. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May for most areas.

PERIODS OF ALMOST DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought scattered showers to the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday, which continues on Friday. Some areas of heavy rain have been falling over drought areas, which is helping to increase soil moisture and may reduce drought in some areas. A stalled front across Texas will keep showers going for the weekend and early next week and a system moving along it will spread showers northward for mid-late next week as well. Overall, this is a favorable pattern for producing needed precipitation.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures are moderating in the Northern Plains, with frost chances diminishing. Scattered showers have provided some areas of good rainfall over the last two days, which continues on Friday. Isolated showers will remain possible over the weekend into early next week, but a system moving into the West should produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms for mid-late next week. These bouts of rainfall should help to moisten soils and reduce drought to some degree.

SPORADIC SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the Canadian Prairies through the end of next week and probably into early June as well. That should help to increase soil moisture and should not be heavy enough to discourage planting in most areas. Though planting continues to be behind schedule, producers will find a way. Once the crop is in the ground, plants will find good soil moisture for a while. The pattern does encourage some colder air returning next week in the west, but models leave the region well enough above normal to not worry about frost potential.

STALLED FRONT BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS TO THE DELTA

A front has stalled in the Delta and will produce daily showers and thunderstorms through most of next week. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought, largely favorable for developing soybeans and cotton.

DRIER IN MOST OF BRAZIL

Wheat planting continues to increase across far southern Brazil and is dependent on showers to move in to support root growth. A little system will bring some showers to Parana on Friday with more showers possible across the far south next week. Safrinha corn has been suffering outside of the far southern growing areas, which continues as fill progresses.

GETTING DRIER IN EUROPE AGAIN

Recent widespread rainfall has been overall favorable for much of the wheat and corn crops in Europe. Temperatures are increasing this week, and may cause some stress if there are drier areas out in the west. And drier weather is generally expected through next week. Some areas that are on the cusp of being too dry will find the conditions stressful.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, COLDER NEXT WEEK

An upper-level low-pressure system has been bringing showers to the Black Sea region this week. Drier areas in the west have been finding more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall, a very favorable situation for much of the region. A larger system may move through next week with multiple days of widespread precipitation, but also some colder air. The rainfall is favorable, but the cold will limit growth and there is an outside chance for frosts in some northern areas mid-late next week.

SOME SHOWERS AMDIST DRIER PATTERN IN AUSTRALIA

Recent rainfall has increased soil moisture in Australia a bit, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. A few isolated showers moved through the west on Thursday and will move through the east starting on Sunday. Models have a system sitting around eastern areas for a couple of days next week, extending shower chances for a couple of days. The pattern is also looking a little more busy with occasional showers into early June, which would be favorable. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

MORE SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

Recent heavy rain in northern and central China has been favorable, though some areas in the northeast continue to be on the drier side. Models have increased chances for precipitation in corn and soybean areas for Friday, this weekend, and next week, which would be welcomed. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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