DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THU...17 AT 4 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KIPLING, MI, 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG BAY, MI, AND FOXPARK, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...RAPID CITY, SD 1.82 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Plains. Additional troughs can be found in the Southwest and Alaska. The Plains trough will move northeast over the ridge this weekend while another will build behind it across central Canada for next week. The Southwest trough will slide toward Texas while the Alaskan trough will move into the West next week and sit there for several days.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

An old front will be waffling around from the Southern Plains through the Southeast for several days next week, producing areas of showers and thunderstorms. A system in the West will likely extend showers through the West and Plains next week as well. Temperatures will generally be above normal for much of the country except the West and across the far south where showers and cloud cover would keep temperatures down a bit.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures are moderating, with frost chances diminishing. Scattered showers have provided some areas of good rainfall over the last two days, which continues on Friday. Isolated showers will remain possible over the weekend into early next week, but a system moving into the West should produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms for mid-late next week. These bouts of rainfall should help to moisten soils and reduce drought to some degree.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought scattered showers to the region on Thursday, which continues on Friday. Some areas of heavy rain have been falling over drought areas, which is helping to increase soil moisture and may reduce drought in some areas. A stalled front across Texas will keep showers going for the weekend and early next week and a system moving along it will spread showers northward for mid-late next week as well. Overall, this is a favorable pattern for producing needed precipitation.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move through the region on Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Some isolated showers may follow it over the weekend and a front to the south may lift northward with showers for southern areas mid-late next week. Temperatures will be increasing this weekend, getting some summer warmth into the region and allowing some wet soils to dry out across the north. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May for most areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front has stalled in the region and will produce daily showers and thunderstorms through most of next week. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought, largely favorable for developing soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the region through the end of next week and probably into early June as well. That should help to increase soil moisture and should not be heavy enough to discourage planting in most areas. Though planting continues to be behind schedule, producers will find a way. Once the crop is in the ground, plants will find good soil moisture for a while. The pattern does encourage some colder air returning next week in the west, but models leave the region well enough above normal to not worry about frost potential.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Wheat planting continues to increase across the far south and is dependent on showers to move in to support root growth. A little system will bring some showers to Parana on Friday with more showers possible across the far south next week. Safrinha corn has been suffering outside of the far southern growing areas, which continues as fill progresses.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. Colder temperatures this week have been producing frosts at times, but are not a threat to corn, soybeans, or wheat. The forecast has turned drier for next week. Soil moisture is reportedly favorable across much of the country, but it has been some time since a good rain fell and soil moisture may be falling.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Recent widespread rainfall has been overall favorable for much of the wheat and corn crops. Temperatures are increasing this wee, and may cause some stress if there are drier areas out in the west. And drier weather is generally expected through next week. Some areas that are on the cusp of being too dry will find the conditions stressful.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level low-pressure system has been bringing showers to the region this week. Drier areas in the west have been finding more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall, a very favorable situation for much of the region. A larger system may move through next week with multiple days of widespread precipitation, but also some colder air. The rainfall is favorable, but the cold will limit growth and there is an outside chance for frosts in some northern areas mid-late next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall has increased soil moisture a bit, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. A few isolated showers moved through the west on Thursday, and will move through the east starting on Sunday. Models have a system sitting around eastern areas for a couple of days next week, extending shower chances for a couple of days. The pattern is also looking a little more busy with occasional showers into early June, which would be favorable. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent heavy rain in northern and central areas has been favorable, though some areas in the northeast continue to be on the drier side. Models have increased chances for precipitation in corn and soybean areas for Friday, this weekend, and next week, which would be welcomed. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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