Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A cold front stalling across the southern tier of the U.S. and showers in the Plains that will hit a lot of drought areas, recent rain in northern Europe, and also in eastern Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF MIDWEST

A front is pushing south of the Midwest with a final round of showers and thunderstorms along the Ohio River on Wednesday. Severe weather and flooding have been issues this week, particularly across the south. Otherwise, the rainfall is largely favorable for increasing or maintaining soil moisture. After a couple of drier days, another weaker system will move through late Thursday through Saturday with more scattered showers. The front to the system could bring showers to southern areas through next week at times as well. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May.

FRONT CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS, SHOWERS NORTH

A front is stalling down around Texas, where periods of showers will occur well into next week. Another system will move through the Central and Southern Plains Wednesday through Friday with more scattered showers for the rest of the region. The pattern will be messier next week, which will provide more opportunities for precipitation throughout the region as well. Though showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, there will be some beneficial rainfall both this week and next that will help to increase soil moisture for emergent corn and soybeans. However, cold air caused frosts in the northwest on Tuesday and northeast on Wednesday, which may cause damage to emergent crops and winter wheat there.

SHOWERS AND COLDER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures have been well below normal in the Northern Plains the last few days, producing some frosts and freezes. Temperatures are starting to moderate, with frost chances diminishing. Showers will move back in with a small system moving through Wednesday through Friday. The pattern will be messier next week, but may include a few chances for rain as well. Though the frosts could be somewhat damaging to any emergent soybeans, the bouts of rain are favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

COLDER WITH SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Cold air that moved into the Canadian Prairies late last week caused areas of frosts and freezes that continue for another day or two in the east. Along with widespread areas of precipitation, that has slowed down planting progress in a time when the planting window is shorter. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the region through the end of the week and bouts of precipitation will be possible next week as well. That should help to increase soil moisture, but should not be heavy enough to discourage planting. Producers will find a way. Once the crop is in the ground, plants will find good soil moisture for a while. The pattern does encourage some colder air returning next week in the west, a factor to watch for potential frosts.

STALLED FRONT BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS TO THE DELTA

A front is moving into the Delta, which will stall and bring through daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through a good portion of next week. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

DRIER AGAIN IN BRAZIL

Wheat planting continues to increase across far southern Brazil and is dependent on showers to move in to support root growth. Another little system will bring some showers to Parana later this week with more showers possible across the far south later next week.

RECENT FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN EUROPE, BUT GETTING DRIER AGAIN

Recent widespread rainfall in Europe has been overall favorable for much of the wheat and corn crops. A few colder days over the weekend produced some very patchy frosts, but were not widespread enough to cause much concern. Temperatures are increasing this week and may cause some stress if there are drier areas out in the west. With showers largely exiting on Wednesday, drier weather is generally expected late this week through next week. Some areas that are on the cusp of being too dry will find the conditions stressful.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

An upper-level low-pressure system slid into the Black Sea region over the weekend continues to bring showers for the next few days. Drier areas in the west have been finding more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall, a very favorable situation for much of the region. A larger system may move through next week with more widespread precipitation.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA AMDIST DRIER PATTERN

A system brought some areas of heavy rainfall to eastern Australia this past weekend. That is increasing soil moisture, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. A few isolated showers will move through the west on Thursday, and through the east Sunday and Monday. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

MORE SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

A system this weekend produced some heavy rain in some northern and central China, but flooding was outside of the primary growing regions. Some areas in the northeast continue to be on the drier side, unfavorable for corn and soybeans. Models have started to increase chances for precipitation in these areas for next week, which would be welcomed. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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