DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...109 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...11 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...LINCOLN, NE 2.63 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the West. The trough will be forced over the ridge this week through Canada. Another small trough will follow behind it this week. Other troughs will find an easy path through western Canada and the Southwest this weekend and into next week while the ridge backs up a bit into the Central.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences in precipitation placement and timing, not unusual for this type of pattern for this time of year. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

An old front will likely remain active with showers across the South this weekend, possibly through next week as well. Systems moving through western Canada will likely extend showers through the Plains and Midwest at various times next week as well. Temperatures will generally be rising above normal for much of the country except around Texas where showers and cloud cover would keep temperatures down a bit.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers developed over the weekend, bringing some areas of heavier rain to some dry areas in the region, particularly in the Dakotas. Scattered showers continue on Monday, including snow in Wyoming. Temperatures are falling well below normal, producing some frosts and freezes the next few mornings. Temperatures will start to moderate in the middle of the week while showers will move back in with a small system moving through. Though the frosts could be somewhat damaging to any emergent soybeans, the frequent bouts of rain are favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front brought areas of heavy rain and severe weather across Nebraska and northern Kansas over the weekend. With one more system to go through the region, another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Monday. The front to the system will push southward this week with areas of showers continuing along it in Texas, but also farther north at times as well. Though showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, there will be some beneficial rainfall this week that will help to increase soil moisture for emergent corn and soybeans. However, cold air is moving in behind the front to the system, which will cause potential frosts in the northwest on Tuesday and maybe Wednesday, which may cause damage to emergent crops and winter wheat there.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front brought through some areas of heavy rain and severe weather over the weekend. A system moving along the front will proceed northeast through the region on Monday into Tuesday, with more widespread rain and thunderstorms, heavy rain, severe weather, and potential for flooding. The rainfall is largely favorable for increasing or maintaining soil moisture, but causing delays to fieldwork. After a couple of drier days, another weaker system will move through at the end of the week with more scattered showers and the pattern will support more periods of showers moving through this weekend and next week as well. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It was largely dry over the weekend, though a few showers occurred across the south. A front will move into the region this week and stall, bringing through multiple days of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Cold air that moved in late last week caused areas of frosts and freezes over the weekend. Some areas of showers also turned to snow where precipitation rates were heavier. That is slowing down planting progress. The pattern will be somewhat active throughout the week with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms moving through. That should help to increase soil moisture and will not be heavy enough to discourage planting. Instead, that will be the cold weather, which will continue to produce frosts and some freezes through midweek before temperatures moderate. With multiple systems through the end of May, there could be some more frosts down the line that could cause issues for early-planted crops.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front moved into the south over the weekend, bringing some areas of heavy rain to Mato Grosso dust Sul and Parana. The front continues with waning showers into central Brazil on Monday, but with lower coverage and amounts. Very little of the safrinha corn areas will receive rainfall. Wheat planting continues to increase across the far south, and is dependent on these showers to move in to support root growth. Another little system will bring some showers to Parana later this week with more showers across the far south next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Colder temperatures this week may produce frosts at times, but are not a threat to corn, soybeans, or wheat.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system moved southeast over the weekend, but brought widespread rainfall across the continent, including over the drier northeast. Other systems will bring showers to Europe this week, particularly over the north, overall favorable for wheat and corn. A few colder days over the weekend produced some very patchy frosts, but were not widespread enough to cause much concern.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level low-pressure system slid into the region from Europe over the weekend and brought some areas of showers that continue throughout this week as well. Drier areas in the west will have more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall a very favorable situation for much of the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moved into the eastern half of the country over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rainfall. That is increasing soil moisture, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system this weekend produced some heavy rain in some northern and central areas, but not all. Showers will slowly leave the North China Plain early this week. Some areas continue to be on the drier side, unfavorable for wheat, corn, and soybeans. Shower chances are still lower than favorable for much of central and northeastern China. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Monday, below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday.

Temperatures below normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.