DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough complex continues across the Central and East, a ridge is still pushing into western Canada, and a piece of a trough is underneath the ridge in the Southwest. That little trough will continue across the far south through the weekend. The main trough complex will shift a bit to the east next week, allowing the ridge to take over more of the West and Rockies. However, additional disturbances moving over the ridge will still feed the eastern trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge may take over more of the South before shifting to the Central next weekend or the following week, causing a significant change to the pattern as a trough moves into the West.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences in temperature and precipitation timing. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A smaller system will clear the Midwest by the middle of next week after putting down scattered showers. Another storm will likely move through Canada later next week, but could bring some showers farther south into the U.S. as well. And a more substantial system will be possible next weekend, but could wait until the following week as well. Warmer air in the West will gradually spread eastward next week, especially next weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THU...10 AT LEADVILLE CO AND BERTHOUD PASS, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...COLUMBUS, GA 4.27 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough complex continues across the Central and East, a ridge is still pushing into western Canada, and a piece of a trough is underneath the ridge in the Southwest. That little trough will continue across the far south through the weekend. The main trough complex will shift a bit to the east next week, allowing the ridge to take over more of the West and Rockies. However, additional disturbances moving over the ridge will still feed the eastern trough. The ridge may take over more of the South before shifting to the Central next weekend or the following week, causing a significant change to the pattern as a trough moves into the West.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences in temperature and precipitation timing. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A smaller system will clear the Midwest by the middle of next week after putting down scattered showers. Another storm will likely move through Canada later next week, but could bring some showers farther south into the U.S. as well. And a more substantial system will be possible next weekend, but could wait until the following week as well. Warmer air in the West will gradually spread eastward next week, especially next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Pockets of isolated showers are possible through Monday. Overall though, conditions have been and should continue to be dry enough for fieldwork. The lack of rain is not all that favorable as a lot of areas are dealing with drought or increasing dryness.

Temperatures have not been favorable this week with frosts and freezes being fairly widespread. But the western ridge pressing into the area should gradually bring temperatures up more consistently next week. Regardless, prospects for good planting conditions are increasing as we get deeper into May, though there are some immediate concerns about enough moisture.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent precipitation has been relieving for some dry areas in the west, while frosts that followed may have caused damage to advanced wheat and emergent other crops. The risk for frost is essentially over for the year now, a bit late.

Small disturbances will bring through some periods of isolated showers and thunderstorms through next week, but most areas are going to remain dry.

Temperatures rising above normal next week could cause additional stress for areas in drought. The pattern will allow for more active weather starting next weekend, but the degree to which showers develop is a bit uncertain. Extreme dryness in the region needs a lot of rain to reduce drought, let alone eliminate it.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold air settling in this week has been bringing areas of frosts and freezes, which have been more concentrated across the north, but have also found their way into Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana as well. The extent to crop damage is uncertain, though some has likely occurred and soybean replanting will be necessary. Below-normal temperatures continue into early next week that may cause a few more areas of frosts, particularly on Monday and maybe Tuesday. Periods of isolated showers will move through the region in the cooler air with a bigger system moving through on Tuesday into Wednesday. That system will be followed by warmer temperatures for later next week and especially next weekend, ending the risk of frost for the year. Active weather will continue through the rest of May most likely as well.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front pushed through the region this week with areas of moderate rainfall. Recent heavy rain has been improving drought conditions, but large deficits remain. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop through the weekend. Though these chances will be lower for heavy, drought-reducing rain, they will still continue the trend of reducing drought in the region. The process will take a long time to reduce these long-term deficits, even if the pattern remains busy through the month of May.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Frosts and freezes have been common this week, especially in the east. Western areas are warming up, though some cold may linger in the east into next week. Overall, the cold has been leading to more delays in spring planting. Even though precipitation has slowed down significantly, and showers are likely to be spotty through next week, soil moisture is very good in most areas and will help for early growth once the crop is planted. With temperatures rising next week, planting activity will be quite rapid during the middle of the month.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front will bring scattered showers to southern areas through the weekend, being heavy in the far southern corn-growing areas. The showers will wane as the front continues northward and fizzles out. Only a small portion of southern safrinha corn areas are expected to get rain, but it could be significant. Hot and dry conditions north of the front have been and continue to be unfavorable for filling corn in most areas. But cold air moving in behind the front may cause some patchy areas of frost across the far south Sunday through Tuesday.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, though it is a slow process for most of the country.

Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. A system that moved through this week brought some moisture to wheat areas as planting starts up this month. Cold temperatures moving in behind the front will produce frosts and some freezes, but it is not likely to cause damage to the maturing crop. Wheat is either not planted or too immature to be damaged by the cold.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been spreading eastward this week, getting some needed rain into the dry northeast. Another system will move into the west on Friday, spreading showers eastward this weekend and especially next week. Even more rain is forecast to move through the continent later next week and weekend. Overall, conditions are favorable for wheat on most of the continent or improving like areas in the northeast. Though showers may disrupt spring planting a bit, the overall effect is positive.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue over the next couple of weeks. Rains are coming at a pace that is favorable for most areas, though western portions of Ukraine and Belarus could use more frequent rain. These areas seem to be the target of more of the systems coming out of Europe both this week and next, leading to overall good conditions.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Even though there has been some rain recently, rainfall deficits are still large and conditions are still dry. Drier weather is expected through next week, as well. Overall conditions are poor for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. The developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with poor winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Very limited showers through next week are not favorable either. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday night-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures falling Friday, below to well below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, above normal north and below normal south Saturday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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