Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent and forecast rainfall across the southern U.S. that is reducing drought, cold air causing frosts, the end of the wet season in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MIDWEST PARTIALLY DRYING OUT AFTER HEAVY RAINS SOAK THE REGION

Showers will continue across the Midwest through Monday, but with lower coverage and amounts than we have seen recently. That should allow some wet areas to drain and planting to pick up. However, it will also be cold through next week with potential for frosts, primarily across the north if skies clear out and winds calm down. Another big system will be possible in the middle of next week that could bring more areas of heavy rain, keeping soil moisture well-stocked.

BATCHES OF RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Batches of showers and thunderstorms continue in the Central and Southern Plains for Thursday, which is getting into the drier southwestern wheat areas, but with low coverage and amounts. However, a system will move across Texas on Friday with more of a shield of showers that should mean widespread precipitation there and against the High Plains in Colorado. The widespread rain will improve soil moisture for some areas of the southwestern Plains, though western Kansas and parts of Oklahoma are still extremely dry. The drought is deep and intense and will take a long time to undo. Another storm system is looking likely for next Tuesday and Wednesday, which may be helpful as well as another system for late next week or weekend. The more active weather may bring some showers to drier wheat areas, though many fear it is too late as we get into May. Cold temperatures at times will be creating frosts through next week if skies clear out and winds calm down, which may cause damage to winter wheat and emerging soybeans.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers may move through the Northern Plains into early next week, but it should be largely dry. Temperatures will largely remain below normal through the first half of May, producing more consistent frosts and freezes. No damage is expected since planting has been slow for corn and soybeans, but the colder temperatures could cause slower planting or growth for wheat that has already been planted.

COLD AIR LINGERING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Cold air in the Canadian Prairies is moderating a bit over the next few days, but more cold air is forecast to move in next week. The cold is causing issues this season as snow is sticking around later and soils are still relatively cold. This is causing a short planting window for the season. Soil moisture is at least very good, which is favorable for once the crop is planted.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EASING DROUGHT IN DELTA

Periods of heavy rain have been moving through the Delta this week and continue into early Saturday before getting a break. The rain is more than welcome, easing the extreme drought in the region. However, rainfall deficits are incredibly large and will take much more rain to significantly reduce. There will be more chances next week and beyond to continue the trend of reducing drought.

PERIODIC RAIN OVER SOUTHERN BRAZIL, LITTLE TO NONE FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A stalled front across southern Brazil has been producing scattered showers for Parana in the south this week. Some showers will continue there into Monday. Central Brazil has gotten very hot and dry as the wet season has come to an end a couple of weeks early. The country will see if fronts moving up from Argentina can be of some help for occasional rainfall, but soil moisture will be running out soon, a poor sign for safrinha corn.

NORTHEASTERN EUROPE STILL DRY, SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Dry conditions in northeastern Europe have not been favorable for winter wheat and more rain is needed. Scattered showers continue across western Europe and should push eastward next week, hitting some of the driest areas with scattered showers. Conditions for wheat development and corn planting are overall favorable for most of the continent.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COLD IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Cooler temperatures have been around the Black Sea Region all week, but frosts will mainly occur over the less developed places in the north. Southern areas that are farther along may have some damage, but the overall prospect for widespread frost and freeze damage is low. Occasional rain showers and the clouds that come with it should have been limiting the overall low temperatures from falling too much. The cold could discourage corn planting, however. Temperatures should moderate next week, though the showers are likely to continue. Some soggy areas in the east could use a break from the recent persistent rains, but western areas could use more rain.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY, SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND

Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but are only producing moderate conditions at best. We should see showers across the east this weekend, but widespread heavy rain is not in the forecast and drier conditions are again expected next week. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

The North China Plain and northeast China continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Only occasional light showers are forecast through mid-May. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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