Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple systems moving through the U.S. with heavy rain in parts of the dry south, cold air moving in from Canada, the end of the wet season in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE MIDWEST MONDAY, MORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Heavy rain and severe weather moved through the Midwest on Monday, causing some damage and flooding. Another system will move across the south on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing through more precipitation for drier areas in that part of the region. Occasional showers will move through later this week and into next week as well. Temperatures will fall below normal this week, being largely below normal for the first half of May. Occasional periods of frost will be possible, mostly across the north, but could hamper planting progress, or cause some frost damage.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HIT DRIEST PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Batches of showers and thunderstorms will move across the Central and Southern Plains for the next couple of days, but will favor the north and east. Some of these areas will gladly take the precipitation, but dryness is a big issue in the southwest. However, a system is forecast to move across the south on Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Widespread areas of rain are looking likely, which will improve soil moisture. But the drought is deep and intense, which will not be eliminated from this one storm. There is some indication that the south will be the target for more systems in early May, which may be helpful as well. The more active weather could slow planting progress a bit, but that has been off to a very rapid pace thus far.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers may move through the Northern Plains for the rest of the week, but it should be largely dry. Temperatures will largely remain below normal through the first half of May, producing more consistent frosts and freezes. No damage is expected since planting has been slow for corn and soybeans, but the colder temperatures could cause slower planting or growth for wheat.

COLD AIR LINGERING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Cold air sitting in the Canadian Prairies will moderate a bit by later this week, but more cold air is forecast to move in over the weekend and especially next week. The cold is causing issues this season as snow is sticking around later and soils are still relatively cold, if not snow-covered. The pattern in early May does not favor the region, and a short planting window is happening this year. Soil moisture is at least very good, which is favorable for once the crop is planted.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EASING DROUGHT IN DELTA

Heavy rain and thunderstorms moved through the Delta late last week and more moved across the north on Monday. The region will stay busy throughout the week with periods of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Areas of heavy rain are in the forecast, which should be highly beneficial. However, despite the rain, the drought is deep and the deficits are extremely large. The prospects for more rain extend into next week as well, but will need to be wetter for longer than that to significantly ease drought.

PERIODIC RAIN OVER SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front has stalled out across southern Brazil, which produced scattered showers over the weekend. Some showers will continue there early this week and then again late this week. Central Brazil has gotten very hot and dry as the wet season has come to an end a couple of weeks early. The country will see if fronts moving up from Argentina can be of some help for occasional rainfall, but soil moisture will be running out soon, a poor sign for safrinha corn.

NORTHEASTERN EUROPE STILL DRY

Dry conditions in northeastern Europe have not been favorable for winter wheat and more rain is needed. Additional showers will move across western Europe throughout the week and should push eastward this weekend and especially next week. Conditions for wheat development and corn planting are overall favorable for most of the continent.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COLD IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers moved across the Black Sea region over the weekend, but we also saw temperatures dropping. Cooler temperatures will be around all week, but frosts will mainly occur over the less developed places in the north. Southern areas that are farther along may have some damage, but the overall prospect for widespread frost and freeze damage is low. Occasional rain showers will move in throughout the week and the clouds that come with it should limit the overall low temperatures from falling too much. The cold could discourage corn planting, however. Temperatures should moderate next week, though the showers are likely to continue.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting. Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but are only producing moderate conditions at best. We may see showers across the east this weekend, but widespread heavy rain is not in the forecast. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

Some showers fell across the North China Plain and the northeast over the weekend, but these areas have been drier since last fall. Drier conditions are likely here this week, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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