Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple systems moving through the U.S., heavy rain in parts of the dry south, cold air moving in from Canada, the end of the wet season in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

SYSTEMS, HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER FOR MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A system moved through eastern areas of the Midwest last Friday and another system moved into the west on Sunday. That system will move across the region into early Tuesday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is looking likely across the middle of the region on Monday afternoon and evening. Another system will move across the south on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing through needed precipitation for drier areas in that part of the region. Occasional showers will move through later this week and into next week as well. Temperatures will fall below normal this week, being largely below normal for the first half of May. Occasional periods of frost will be possible, mostly across the north, but could hamper planting progress, or cause some frost damage.

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HIT DRIEST PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Batches of showers and strong thunderstorms moved through portions of the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, but missed southwestern areas that are in deepening drought. Occasional showers will move across the region throughout the week, but will favor the north and east. Some of these areas will gladly take the precipitation, but dryness is a big issue in the southwest. However, a system is forecast to move across the south on Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Widespread areas of rain are looking likely, which will improve soil moisture. But the drought is deep and intense, which will not be eliminated from this one storm. There is some indication that the south will be the target for more systems in early May, which may be helpful as well. The more active weather could slow planting progress a bit.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, which included some areas of light snow. Those showers exit on Monday. Showers may develop throughout the rest of the week, but will be isolated. That is ahead of a system that will spin around in the Canadian Prairies this weekend that will bring more showers through. Temperatures will largely remain below normal through the first half of May, producing more consistent frosts this week and possibly next week as well. No damage is expected since planting has been slow for corn and soybeans, but the colder temperatures could cause slower planting or growth for wheat.

COLD AIR LINGERING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Heavy snow fell in Alberta and Saskatchewan late last week while very cold air settled into the Canadian Prairies as well. The cold air will moderate a bit by later this week, but more cold air is forecast to move in over the weekend. The cold is causing issues this season as snow is sticking around later and soils are still relatively cold, if not snow-covered. The pattern in early May does not favor the region, and a short planting window is happening this year. Soil moisture is at least very good at this time of year, which is favorable for once the crop is planted.

PERIODS OF RAIN EASING DROUGHT IN DELTA

Heavy rain and thunderstorms moved through the Delta on Friday and Saturday, bringing some much-needed heavy rain through the region. Other periods of precipitation will occur throughout the week, bringing more needed rainfall. However, despite the rain, the drought is deep and the deficits are extremely large. The prospects for more rain extend into next week as well, but will need to be wetter for longer than that to significantly ease drought.

PERIODIC RAIN OVER SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front has stalled out across southern Brazil, which produced scattered showers over the weekend. Some showers will continue there early this week and then again late this week. Central Brazil has gotten very dry as the wet season has essentially come to an end a couple of weeks early. The country will see if fronts moving up from Argentina can be of some help for occasional rainfall, but soil moisture will be running out soon, a poor sign for safrinha corn.

NORTHEASTERN EUROPE STILL DRY

Some showers moved through northeastern Europe and Spain this weekend. Dry conditions in the northeast have not been favorable for winter wheat and more rain is needed. Additional showers will move across western Europe throughout the week and should push eastward this weekend and next week. Conditions for wheat development and corn planting are overall favorable for most of the continent.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COLD IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers again moved across the Black Sea region over the weekend, but we also saw temperatures dropping. Cooler temperatures will be around all week, but frosts will mainly occur over the less developed places in the north. Southern areas that are farther along may have some damage, but the overall prospect for widespread frost and freeze damage is low. Occasional rain showers will move in throughout the week and the clouds that come with it should limit the overall low temperatures from falling too much. The cold could discourage corn planting, however.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting. Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but are only producing moderate conditions at best. We may see showers across the east this weekend, but widespread heavy rain is not in the forecast. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.