Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big system moving into the Canadian Prairies, multiple impacts farther south across the U.S., the end of the wet season in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE RAIN COMING TO MIDWEST

A front will move through the Midwest on Thursday and Friday, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, but also bringing in some cooler air to the west. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday, with more widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cooler air through the region. Even colder air will push through later next week, which may cause some areas of frosts and freezes into early May. The colder forecast may also slow down planting progress.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY GET SOME RELIEVING RAINS

A front will move through the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday and bring in some more cold air that is forecast to be common into early May, especially across the north. Scattered showers will develop along the front, but will miss drier areas in the west. Though additional thunderstorms will develop across the east on Saturday, a better chance for precipitation comes with a system moving through on Sunday. Precipitation may be widespread across the north, delivering needed rainfall in Nebraska. Another system is forecast to get southern areas with widespread rain in the middle of next week. However, deficits and drought are increasing and becoming a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost going into early May.

STRONGER STORM AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Northern Plains on Thursday, bringing through scattered showers but also some colder air. Accumulating snow is falling in Montana. The system will stall in the Canadian Prairies and may bring occasional showers into the weekend. More showers will be likely from a system passing by to the south on Sunday. The cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature and more consistent frosts and freezes.

MORE COLD AND SNOW FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system moved into the Canadian Prairies on Wednesday and will linger through the weekend, creating widespread precipitation. Rain will turn to heavy snow, especially in Saskatchewan, for Thursday and Friday. The system will also bring through another round of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows seem all but certain at this point.

DROUGHT STILL GROWING IN THE DELTA, BUT RAIN CHANCES IMPROVING

Drought is a major concern in the Delta for this season, but there are multiple chances for precipitation moving forward. A front moving through on Friday into Saturday could bring through some needed showers. Two more fronts will move through next week with scattered showers as well. But despite the chances for rain, the drought is deep and deficits are extremely large. A very wet pattern will be needed to significantly ease the drought. There is time and the long-range forecast is somewhat favorable, but there is a long way to go.

WET SEASON RAINFALL ENDING EARLY IN BRAZIL

Spotty showers continue around Mato Grosso, but much of central Brazil will remain dry as the wet season rainfall has essentially come to an end a couple of weeks early. A front is stalling across the south and will produce periods of showers for Rio Grande do Sul and Parana at times through next week. Much of the safrinha corn acreage will be dry, though. The country will then rely on fronts to bring through extra moisture as corn is now pollinating for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is only calling for these fronts to move into the far south. When it is not raining, temperatures are very high, creating additional stress. The lower soil moisture built up this wet season will soon be depleted, a poor outlook for safrinha corn.

NORTHEASTERN, SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE GETTING SOME SHOWERS

Some showers will move through eastern Europe this weekend. Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take the scattered showers. Additional showers will move across Spain through the weekend as well. Drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting this week, but are not much of a concern for winter wheat, which has fairly good soil moisture across most of the continent. But if rain does not fill back in during early May, there could be some issues developing.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue in the Black Sea region into next week, being favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to slow increase this spring. However, it is also colder through next week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a somewhat normal pace. It may discourage corn planting some, however.

MOST OF AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting. Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but are only producing moderate conditions at best. The country just needs more rain. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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