Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A busy weather pattern across the U.S., including some rain for drought-stricken areas in the Plains, and isolated showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

DISTURBANCES BRINGING NEAR-DAILY SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A front will remain active in the Midwest with showers through Friday, lifting northward on Saturday with some warmer air moving in. A system or two will then bring more scattered showers early-to-mid next week, providing plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for spring planting. However, some areas may receive too much, and ponding may be a concern for planting as well. Though temperatures are rising, the 50-degree soil temperature mark is only creeping into southern areas and frequent changes in air temperature will mean a slow progress northward for the rest of the month.

AREAS OF RAIN FALLING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK

A front will stall out in the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday and Friday before lifting northward on Saturday as another system moves in. Yet another system will move through early next week. All features will bring chances for scattered showers, including to the deepest drought areas that are building in the west. The showers will come in batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting. Drought remains a problem despite the active pattern, which is forecast to continue through most of April.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A few showers will move through the Northern Plains on Thursday. Another system will move through this weekend with warmer air and some scattered showers into Monday and another system will be possible late next week. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

DELTA DRIER THIS WEEK, SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

Drought is still heavily entrenched in the Delta. There may be some isolated showers into the weekend, but drier conditions this week have not been favorable for soil moisture. That will make planting and early growth more difficult. A few fronts will approach the region with some showers next week, but consistent, heavy rains are not in the forecast.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front is providing a brief burst of moderate rain across central Brazil for Thursday. But precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. Another front will enhance showers across the south this weekend into early next week, but wet season rainfall does appear to be winding down early in central Brazil. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn, as wet season rainfall is counted on for decent corn yields. If the rains indeed shut down early, prior to the start of May, then losses should be expected.

SOME SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to Argentina last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall, as will another early next week.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE, BIGGER STORM NEXT WEEK

A couple of smaller systems are moving through Europe this week with more focused areas of precipitation, previously across Spain and now for Germany on Thursday. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat development and early corn planting outside of the northeast, which is drier. Showers may be more widespread this weekend into next week as a system slowly passes through the continent. Northeast areas still look drier, though.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A stalled system will continue to produce rounds of showers across the Black Sea region into the weekend and possibly next week as well. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

AUSTRALIA COULD USE SOME MORE RAIN

A few showers are going through southeastern Australia on Thursday, but many areas have been dry this week. That is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Drier conditions are forecast next week as well, discouraging wheat and canola planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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