DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is shifting into the East while a trough is moving along the Canadian border. Another trough in the Pacific will move into the Southwest this weekend and move through the country next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Additional troughs will move into the West and challenge the eastern ridge later next week and into late April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through northern areas early next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some colder temperatures will sneak down from Canada behind the early week system for a couple of days.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...99 AT DEATH VALLEY CA AND 2 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF CIBOLA, AZ, 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ, AND 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW TUE...13 BELOW ZERO AT 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG BAY, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...WEST PALM BEACH, FL 2.33 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is shifting into the East while a trough is moving along the Canadian border. Another trough in the Pacific will move into the Southwest this weekend and move through the country next week. Additional troughs will move into the West and challenge the eastern ridge later next week and into late April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through northern areas early next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some colder temperatures will sneak down from Canada behind the early week system for a couple of days.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues to move through the region on Wednesday with scattered showers, and a few more will follow behind it on Thursday. Another system will move through this weekend with more scattered showers into Monday. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating more snow and slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas in the west have seen much less precipitation out of the more active weather pattern from last week and drought is increasing in some areas again. The pattern does seem to be a bit more favorable for a front to stall out in the region on Thursday and bring chances for showers to many of these western areas through at least early next week. The showers do look like batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting. Drought remains a problem despite the active pattern.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move through on Wednesday into Thursday and stall a front across where showers may continue into the weekend. The front lifts north this weekend with showers following it and bringing in a burst of warmer air. A system will then bring more scattered showers early next week, providing plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for spring planting. However, some areas may receive too much and ponding may be a concern for planting as well. Though temperatures are rising, the 50-degree soil temperature mark is only creeping into southern areas and frequent changes in air temperature will mean a slow progress northward for the rest of the month.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Though some areas of heavy rain fell over the past weekend, drought is still heavily entrenched in the region. There may be some isolated showers at various times this week, but drier conditions this week should not be favorable for soil moisture. That will make planting and early growth more difficult. Some showers are likely to move through next week, but consistent, heavy rains are not in the forecast.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front brought some heavy rain to southern areas on Tuesday and will provide a brief burst of moderate rain across the central for Wednesday and Thursday. But precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. A similar situation may repeat itself this weekend into early next week. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn as the end of the wet season rainfall is rather disappointing for many areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to the country last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A couple of smaller systems will move through this week with more focused areas of precipitation, currently across Spain and then for Germany on Thursday. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting outside of the northeast, which is drier. Showers may be more widespread this weekend into next week as a system slowly passes through the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A stalled system will continue to produce rounds of showers into the weekend. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A few showers are going through southern areas on Wednesday and Thursday, but many areas will stay dry. That is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Drier conditions are forecast next week as well, discouraging wheat and canola planting.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Showers have been missing the North China Plain, which is a little concerning for winter wheat. Precipitation has been very low since last fall. And while global satellites seem to think that soil moisture is favorable there, they may be wrong. A couple of systems will move through this week and next week, but favor more of the canola areas across the south-central than the wheat areas on the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures variable.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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