Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in parts of the U.S. last week, more coming up for some areas this week, and isolated showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE PATTERN GETS BUSIER FOR MIDWEST

A large system moved through the Midwest over the weekend with widespread heavy precipitation, including mixed precipitation over the far north. Areas in drought saw some of the heaviest precipitation, which should improve soil moisture for planting and early growth in much of the region. Some isolated showers will move through on Monday followed by some cooler air. The colder temperatures should hold back planting more than soil moisture at this point. A system will move through on Wednesday night and stall a front across the south for Thursday where showers may continue into the weekend, and perhaps lift back northward again as well. With more showers expected next week as well, there is plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for planting. Some areas may have the opposite problem with too much rainfall that may cause delays that way.

MORE AREAS OF RAIN FALLING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK

Another strong system pushed through the Central and Southern Plains over the holiday weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which were heavy across the east. However, areas in the west have seen much less precipitation out of the more active weather pattern from last week and drought is increasing in some areas again. The pattern does seem to be a bit more favorable for a front to stall out in the region on Thursday and bring chances for showers to many of these western areas through at least early next week. The showers do look like batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting.

COLDER, PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain and snow moved through the Northern Plains over the holiday weekend, though much of the snow has melted except over eastern North Dakota. Another system will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday with scattered showers. Another will move through this weekend with more scattered showers into early next week. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating more snow and slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

DELTA GOT SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION, BUT STILL DRY

A front moved through the Delta on Saturday into Sunday and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some areas of heavy rain fell as well. With how deep the drought is in the region, the rainfall has certainly helped, but will not wipe away the drought. There may be some isolated showers at various times this week, but drier conditions this week should not be favorable for soil moisture.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Isolated showers continued to fall in Brazil over the weekend, but were not widespread or heavy enough for developing corn. A front will move through early this week and produce widespread showers across the south, and a brief burst of moderate rain across the central, but precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. A similar situation may repeat itself this weekend into early next week. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn.

HEAVY RAIN MOVING OUT OF ARGENTINA

A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to Argentina over the last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the crop that was planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE THIS WEEK

A system moved out of southeastern Europe over the weekend, and a few showers passed through northern areas. A couple of smaller systems will move through this week with more focused areas of precipitation, mostly across Spain and then France and Germany. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend and another system moving in on Monday will produce more rounds of showers for the rest of the week. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

AUSTRALIA COULD USE SOME MORE RAIN

A few showers went through southern Australia over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. The dryness is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Showers will be limited, but continue across the south for the first half of the week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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