DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is moving into the East, which will allow for multiple troughs and disturbances to move into the West and then eastward throughout the week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A similar pattern is forecast for next week, but with more limited western troughs.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar this week, but slightly different with systems next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the country over the weekend with scattered showers, followed by a burst of cooler air. Temperatures should rise again next week for most areas, though the north may stay cooler. A system is likely to go through Canada early next week and may bring some showers to northern areas.

There is a lot of variability in the models to sort out for next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...103 AT MULTIPLE PLACES IN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA

LOW SUN...6 BELOW ZERO AT 4 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ESTCOURT STATION, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...WEST PALM BEACH, FL 2.81 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is moving into the East, which will allow for multiple troughs and disturbances to move into the West and then eastward throughout the week and weekend. A similar pattern is forecast for next week, but with more limited western troughs.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar this week, but slightly different with systems next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the country over the weekend with scattered showers, followed by a burst of cooler air. Temperatures should rise again next week for most areas, though the north may stay cooler. A system is likely to go through Canada early next week and may bring some showers to northern areas.

There is a lot of variability in the models to sort out for next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was quiet over the weekend, though temperatures went through some downs and ups. That continues this week as multiple disturbances come through every other day or so. Some showers will move through, and be welcome, but may include some snow. That is especially true with a system on Friday. It will be difficult to get any early fieldwork done this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures rose quickly over the weekend, but will be all over the board with multiple systems moving through this week. Though multiple rounds of precipitation will go through, they will not hit all areas and are likely to miss the southwest, where drought has quickly been growing over the last couple of months. Northern areas could be in for some accumulating snow on a couple of occasions, and winds will be strong on some days this week as well. Overall, this is a poor week to get any fieldwork done.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures sharply fell late last week, then rose again over the weekend. The up-and-down nature should continue this week with at least three separate disturbances moving through. They will create plenty of opportunity for precipitation, increasing soil moisture for planting, but may make it difficult to get out into the fields this week. Some bursts of colder air should be enough to allow for some accumulating snow over northern areas Wednesday night through Thursday, and again this weekend.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): It was largely dry over the weekend, though a front moved through on Friday. Dryness and drought are a major concern as spring planting increases in April. A front will move through late this week and another will go through this weekend. Despite chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms, it will not be enough to reduce drought for too many areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers in Brazil became isolated over the weekend and continue to be so this week as well. The region needs more consistent heavy rainfall during the last month of the wet season for a good safrinha corn crop. But the forecasts are not favorable for that. They are more favorable for what remains of the soybean harvest, though.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers became heavy over southern Brazil this weekend, helping to increase soil moisture as crop conditions have largely stabilized. A slow-moving front will keep showers going for much of the week across the central and south before moving north this weekend. Rain will be somewhat favorable, but only for late-planted crops as the early season corn harvest continues to march on and early-planted soybeans have started to be harvested as well.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system brought widespread showers to the southeast over the weekend while another system brought showers into the northwest as well. Yet more showers are moving into the northwest early this week while showers continue around the eastern Mediterranean. Northeastern areas have seen a few showers, but need more. Meanwhile, Spain has been a bit drier, allowing them to recover from heavy rain over the winter. Showers may slow down some early planting activity, but conditions are fairly good for most of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved into the region over the weekend and will continue scattered showers early this week. More showers are expected late this week and weekend from the activity continuing in the Mediterranean. With soil moisture mixed around the region, the showers will be helpful as wheat continues to green up.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Tropical Cyclone Narelle brought needed heavy rain through western areas over the weekend while eastern areas were dry. Some disturbances will move through this week, but precipitation will be limited and favored over western areas that are preparing for wheat and canola planting. Dryness in the east will favor cotton and sorghum harvest, but more rain is needed in these areas for wheat and canola planting.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been moving through the Yangtze River Valley lately, favoring some canola areas, but many wheat areas on the North China Plain have been drier since the winter. Showers continue to target central and southern China for the next few days, but a system will move through on Friday and Saturday with some needed precipitation for northern areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures rising above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures rising above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday night-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Monday night-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to well above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers southeast. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures well above normal Monday, near to well above normal Tuesday, below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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