DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with a stronger trough moving along the border into Saturday. Afterward, the ridge will shift to the East next week while troughs start to move into the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Several troughs in the West will make for an active pattern for the middle of the country for the first half of April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the middle of the country mid-to-late next week and another will be possible next weekend as the shifting pattern will promote more active weather across the Central U.S. Temperatures will be warm in the east and cool in the West. Some of that cooler air will spread into the Plains behind next weekend's system.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...108 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...5 AT LAKE METIGOSHE SP, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...BUFFALO, NY 0.90 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with a stronger trough moving along the border into Saturday. Afterward, the ridge will shift to the East next week while troughs start to move into the West. That will get the weather pattern to become a bit more active for early April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the middle of the country mid-to-late next week and another will be possible next weekend as the shifting pattern will promote more active weather across the Central U.S. Temperatures will be warm in the east and cool in the West. Some of that cooler air will spread into the Plains behind next weekend's system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A front moved through on Thursday with a few showers and a round of cooler air that will be very brief. Temperatures should rise on Saturday and the weather pattern will be more active next week as a couple of systems will make their way through. Eventually, some colder air is likely to move in later next week, which could make for some snow. The region would certainly welcome some precipitation ahead of spring planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong front continues to move through on Friday with a few showers and a round of cooler air. Temperatures will rise again next week, though. Precipitation has been very limited lately, which is causing drought to expand across the region, especially in the west. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which will promote scattered showers, but that does not guarantee precipitation for some of the driest areas. Winter wheat conditions are falling significantly and soil moisture conditions are not favorable for many areas for spring planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stronger front moved through on Thursday with scattered showers, some severe weather, and a round of colder air. The colder air will be very brief as temperatures pop right back up this weekend. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which would increase potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought as spring planting starts in some areas.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent dry conditions are turning the momentum around toward building drought instead of reducing it, which is already widespread across the region. While this will make fieldwork very easy, it will not be favorable for early growth as soil moisture is becoming limited again after some good rain in early March. The pattern looks to be a bit more active in early April, but may not necessarily bring through much precipitation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will thin out this weekend and will likely be isolated through next week for much of the country. Conditions are mixed for safrinha corn so far, and there is roughly a month left to the wet season. Any dry time now is unfavorable for the crop.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers will be possible through the weekend with some additional showers south next week. Crop conditions have stabilized after recent rains. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn and the beginning of soybeans, or heading toward maturity. Only a shrinking fraction of the crop can still benefit from rainfall. Drier conditions earlier this year have already taken their toll on production.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continues in the southeast through the weekend, producing beneficial scattered showers. A few fronts will move through the northwest with showers this weekend into early next week as well. Outside of some dryness concerns in the northeast and some wetness concerns in the southwest, conditions are overall favorable for winter wheat as well as corn planting and early growth as that increases in April.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Patchy dryness still exists in the region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. A system will spin through the region this weekend into next week, which would promote scattered showers and more favorable conditions.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front went through eastern Australia with some showers this week, which may disrupt the cotton and sorghum harvest. Meanwhile, Western Australia will be watching Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it moves through this weekend, which will produce heavy rain and for some areas. Both ends of the country will need some rain prior to winter wheat and canola planting, which starts in April, so overall these two events should be regarded as beneficial.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been moving through the Yangtze River Valley lately, favoring some canola areas, but many wheat areas on the North China Plain have been drier since the winter. Showers continue to target central and southern China through next week with more limited precipitation farther north.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday night-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Showers exiting early Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday night-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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