Ag Weather Forum

Early March was an active period that saw some really good precipitation across the middle of the country. However, it wasn't enough to eliminate a lot of drought across the Plains, South, or Southeast, which grew during the last two weeks as the pattern became drier. But the weather pattern will be changing again for the last couple of days of March and early April, a pattern that will feature multiple systems moving through the country, widespread precipitation, heavy rainfall and severe weather chances.

The last 10 days or so have featured a hot and dry upper-level ridge across the West and Central, which has been the source of some record heat. But that ridge will shift eastward and out of the United States next week. That will open up the country to more weather systems, fronts and features that will promote more widespread precipitation across the country.

That begins with a system moving into the Plains on March 30. Models disagree with how widespread showers will be with this first impulse, but additional impulses will move from the West through the Central and into the Northeast through the rest of the week and into Easter weekend.

Overall, rainfall will target some places like the Midwest over others like the Southwest or Southeast, where drier conditions are more likely than not. Still, these areas may get lucky with at least some precipitation next week, but the heaviest precipitation is likely to favor the middle of the country.

Even there, though, it may not favor the areas most in need of precipitation. As the U.S. Drought Monitor showcased on its most recent update, https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/…, drought has expanded significantly across the Interior West, Central and Southern Plains, South and Southeast this week. Many areas of D3, extreme drought, and some areas of D4, exceptional drought cover vast areas of the country. Widespread, heavy precipitation is certainly needed this spring, as many of these areas are dealing with significant deficits during the last six months or longer.

Though the pattern will bring through plenty of opportunities for improvement, those deficits will not be made up by a week of busy weather. And not all areas are likely to be hit. Some areas of the southwestern Plains and Southeast are unlikely to see much precipitation, and drought may worsen in this busier pattern. In contrast, some areas that are not seeing drought could see flooding after several consecutive days of thunderstorms, particularly in the Midwest.

To go along with the heavier rain potential, severe weather looks like a distinct possibility with each of the impulses moving through the country. These impulses are not well forecast at the moment, and thus the areas of where severe weather may occur will likely shift during the coming days. But given that, there may be areas of severe weather east of the Rockies from Monday through at least Saturday, April 4, allowing for many areas to be threatened by strong thunderstorms.

While much of the focus is on precipitation and thunderstorms, temperatures will eventually be low enough for some areas across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest to experience some accumulating snow. It may take until late in the week for enough of the cooler Canadian air to move south to allow for the snow, but this will be a possibility as well.

The active weather pattern may not stop at Easter weekend, either. Models are insistent on multiple systems moving through the country through at least the middle of April. It is too early to tell if there will be more help for those areas in drought or not, but keeping an active pattern going is at least giving these areas a chance to improve.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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