Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A couple of bigger spring-like storms moving across the U.S. and more chances for rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

WIND, SNOW, AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDWEST

Snowpack is extremely low across most of the Midwest and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good about soil moisture. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring, though the weather pattern is opening up and promising some bigger storm potential. One system continues to move through on Wednesday, followed by another for Thursday and Friday. Some showers may linger into the weekend as well. When added together, there is potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms south with snow across the north. Additional storm systems are forecast for next week as well.

NEBRASKA SNOW, STRONG WINDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Strong winds and dry soils have made for some wildfires in a couple of spots in the Central and Southern Plains since Tuesday. Though some good rain fell across parts of the region over the weekend, soil moisture is not all that favorable for winter wheat, especially across the west. Drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas prior to spring planting. The winds are calming down, but the storm systems are not. Another storm will move through on Thursday with a band of snow across Nebraska and another storm could bring some showers through on Friday, with potential for snow across Kansas. A couple of storm systems are likely next week, too, but will favor northern areas of the Plains instead of the Central and South. Instead, strong winds could dry soils quicker, especially with temperatures rising again next week.

MORE HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A big winter storm continues with some heavy snow for northern areas of the Northern Plains on Wednesday and additional snow may come to southern areas on Thursday. Colder temperatures will stick around for a little while as well, but are likely to rise ahead of the next big storm next week. Strong winds are also occurring on Wednesday, causing blizzard conditions in a few spots. Additional strong storm systems are forecast next week.

LESS PRECIPITATION IN DELTA, BUT HIGHER LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A system moved through the Delta over the weekend, which brought widespread precipitation to most areas. This will provide some boost to the Mississippi River, but more will be needed to ease the drought that is very widespread through the Delta prior to spring planting. Multiple larger storms are forecast for the rest of February, which may provide some benefit to the rivers, but favors the Plains and Midwest with the significant precipitation and leaves the region in drought.

WAVES OF SHOWERS FILLING BACK IN ACROSS BRAZIL

Showers have been very isolated over central Brazil over the last several days, which may have allowed fieldwork to progress more rapidly as the country continues to harvest soybeans and plant corn. Waves of showers moving up from Argentina will continue to expand across the country this week and especially next week. The country needs the rain as subsoil moisture continues to be low for this time of year and will be counted on for the coming safrinha corn crop.

SPORADIC RAINS IN ARGENTINA CREATING MIXED CONDITIONS

A few waves of showers will move through Argentina through the weekend, but will be spotty in nature and favor areas that are not in the deepest need of rainfall until maybe Monday across Buenos Aires. Rain has improved soil moisture in some areas, but both corn and soybeans have been trying to improve conditions since the end of January with little progress. Crop conditions for both have not increased since the declines started in early January. For some of the crop, the rains are too late, but there is still time for the later-planted portions of both crops.

BUSY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN EUROPE, GIVES SPAIN A BREAK

An active weather pattern for Europe continues, but has given a break to Spain, which had been inundated for the last couple of months. Poland has not had the precipitation it needs for spring, but there is still time. The active pattern continues through at least the end of February and is both favorable for winter crops, and the coming spring planting season. Some areas may be too wet to work properly though, which may delay fieldwork if it extends too far into March.

ACTIVE PATTERN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

The weather pattern is becoming much more active and chances for frequent precipitation will continue through the end of February. Temperatures remain mixed, but without threat from arctic bursts that would be damaging to wheat.

SOME FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Northern Australia has seen a marked increase in precipitation in 2026, but primary agricultural areas, particularly in the east, have not. Some beneficial rainfall did fall in Queensland over the weekend, but reducing the dryness has been difficult to achieve over the last several weeks. Models are starting to agree that a front will move into the southeast this weekend and stall, which may provide more beneficial rainfall for cotton and sorghum that is largely in the fill stage.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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