DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge extends across Central with several disturbances out in the West, Pacific, and Alaska. Though the ridge will try to keep temperatures up in most areas through the rest of this week, it is not a strong one and will let through another disturbance this weekend across the South.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A bigger trough is forecast in the West by early next week, which will likely send multiple pieces of energy eastward next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but develop systems differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the southern half of the country this weekend with areas of heavier rain and possibly some snow on the northern edge, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Another storm will move through the West late this weekend before entering the north-central U.S. towards the middle of next week. Another system may move through later next week or next weekend.

Temperatures will generally be mild or cool in the West and warm in the Central and East, though systems passing through could change that forecast.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...88 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX

LOW TUE...15 BELOW ZERO AT 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLAYTON LAKE, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...SAULT STE MARIE, MI 0.21 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge extends across Central with several disturbances out in the West, Pacific, and Alaska. Though the ridge will try to keep temperatures up in most areas through the rest of this week, it is not a strong one and will let through another disturbance this weekend across the South. A bigger trough is forecast in the West by early next week, which will likely send multiple pieces of energy eastward next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but develop systems differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the southern half of the country this weekend with areas of heavier rain and possibly some snow on the northern edge, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Another storm will move through the West late this weekend before entering the north-central U.S. towards the middle of next week. Another system may move through later next week or next weekend.

Temperatures will generally be mild or cool in the West and warm in the Central and East, though systems passing through could change that forecast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Warm air has flooded the region and is forecast to continue into next week to some degree. Mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the rest of this week. Snow cover is basically gone except in the far northeast and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting next week. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. However, the pattern is becoming more active and there are at least some chances for precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Models are mixed on the impact, but will likely be sporadic and not widespread. Some areas may see favorable precipitation while others are missed. The south is favored by a system this weekend.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): The threat for arctic cold has ended for a while as temperatures trend warmer throughout the region, but snowpack in the east could keep temperatures a bit closer to average. However, the weather pattern will become more active and the chance for bigger storms is elevated as well. Southern areas are favored by a system this weekend while northern areas could see multiple rounds of precipitation next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the Midwest. That will eventually make it through the Mississippi River system as well. But water levels are low and will need a more active weather pattern to bring them up permanently. That will start this week with a few systems moving through with scattered showers. Some heavier rain will be possible in the Delta this weekend. Additional systems are in the forecast next week as well.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain has been falling in central Brazil lately, which has been favorable for the last remaining filling soybeans, but has been a little troublesome for transport and fieldwork as producers switch from soybeans to safrinha corn. Heavier rain continues through the end of this week but will thin out this weekend into early next week. The country still needs these showers to produce a lot of rain since most of the country is behind and soil moisture is rated as low in many areas for this time of year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several rounds of showers are forecast to move through the country into the upcoming weekend. The focus is on central and northern areas while drier areas in the south will have less precipitation. However, the active weather situation is forecast to continue next week as well. Though the trend has been for worsening soil moisture and crop conditions over the last six weeks or so, some improvements will be made. That is too late for some of the corn and soybean crops that are more advanced, though.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues through next week. The situation is very favorable for winter crops as well as prepping soils for spring crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): The risk for winterkill on winter wheat will dissipate later this week after a brief cold shot exited on Tuesday. Warmer temperatures will spread through afterward. Systems have become more frequent and are easing some of the precipitation deficits in the region as well as providing more protective snow cover. More systems are forecast to bring meaningful precipitation for this weekend and next week, mainly in the form of rain. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Dryness is still widespread across the country, but remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell provided pockets of heavier rain to Western Australia earlier this week. The remnants of Mitchell will continue to move through southern and eastern areas of the country the rest of this week, helping to ease some of the stress as well. Crop conditions are still overall poor for cotton and sorghum, but may be improving.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months, especially across southeast China. Shower chances are more frequent over the next couple of weeks, but with low amounts. The region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next month or two.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers southeast Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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