Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

From Calgary, Alberta, to areas south of Regina, Saskatchewan, the current snowpack is nearly zero centimeters as of early February. While these areas typically have a more arid winter, Medicine Hat, Alberta, has no snowpack right now and it typically averages around 12-16 centimeters (4.7-6.3 inches) of snow per month from November through January. Precipitation has been lacking in these areas as clipper systems are dropping most of the snow north and east.

The precipitation outlook for the rest of the winter and into early spring shows some signs of moisture hitting the southern Canadian Prairies, but will it be enough ahead of planting this spring?

According to the latest North America Drought Monitor that was released on Dec. 31, 62% of the Prairies agricultural landscape was classified as abnormally dry (D0) or in moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought. Throughout November, December and January, precipitation has been within a half inch of normal in these same areas. While clipper systems have been moving across the Prairies throughout the winter, they have been dropping the heavier snowfall across the northern half of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Southern Manitoba has also seen its share of snowfall with snowpack up to 50 cm (20 inches) in some spots.

Through the rest of February, the recent upper-air ridge that has persisted in Western Canada could break down as a trough starts to build in around mid-February. Long-range model guidance hints at this trough persisting across the Canadian Prairies through the end of the month.

DTN's Long-Range Meteorologist Nathan Hamblin explained this pattern would result in the storm track favoring the Pacific Northwest into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The Prairies would remain stuck south of the storm track, and they would see very little precipitation gains through early March.

Looking ahead to March, DTN meteorologists will be watching a weather pattern called the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Meteorologists monitor air pressure over the Kamchatka Peninsula and southeast Asia to determine how it could influence North America's weather. It has two phases, with a negative phase favoring colder weather in eastern North America. The positive phase would shift this cooler air farther to the west as an upper-air ridge develops across Alaska. This would force more arctic air into the Prairies and Hamblin proposed that this would lead to a very dry outlook for the Canadian Prairies as any moisture from the Pacific Ocean will get cut off.

Both February and March show a dry outlook for the Canadian Prairies, but will there be more opportunities for precipitation in April? DTN's precipitation outlook for April shows precipitation is favored to be above average east of the Prairies, but areas closer to the United States border and Saskatchewan could see more opportunities for precipitation.

While soil moisture will likely continue to decline in February and March for the southern Prairies, they may see some relief come April as planting gets started later in the month. DTN meteorologists are also paying close attention to the El Nino Southern Oscillation where ocean temperatures are monitored in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Some model guidance is hinting that El Nino, or above-average ocean temperatures, could develop at a faster rate across the tropical Pacific. If El Nino develops at a faster rate, this could offer additional changes to the weather pattern across the Prairies by May.

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Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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