Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmer air moving through the U.S. and more chances for rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MIXED TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST, WARMER NEXT WEEK

Temperatures have been trying to rise in the Midwest this week, but eastern areas continue to see below-normal readings. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes with snow on Thursday and Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east, while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air will win out next week and will open the door for a few larger storm systems for mid-February. That should help some of the drought situation.

WARM FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Above-normal temperatures have melted the remaining snow in the Central and Southern Plains this week and will stick around through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting later next week, but they may have a tendency to move through the region without producing much precipitation, gathering strength as they move east. The impact now is unknown.

VERY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, LIMITED PRECIPITATION

Warmer air is forecast in the Northern Plains through next week. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation in the near future but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting with a system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday that continues through the rest of the month. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER STILL RUNNING LOW

Rising temperatures in the Delta are helping break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the region. Water levels are dropping on the Mississippi River again, though, after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off low water levels has led to transportation issues since the fall and that is not expected to change much in the coming weeks. The region needs a more active weather pattern. That may start up later next week, but it needs to last a while.

CENTRAL BRAZIL CHANGING TO SAFRINHA CROPS IN FEBRUARY

Heavy rain continues in central Brazil, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning for the coming corn crop if the rains aren't consistently heavier over the next two months. Long-range forecasts continue to show below-normal rainfall for central Brazil.

MORE RAIN FOR DRY PARTS OF ARGENTINA

A front brought some heavier rainfall to some of the driest areas of Argentina on Wednesday, but few areas saw more than an inch. The front will continue showers as it moves north for Thursday and Friday, but with more limited precipitation in the forecast. However, the weather pattern is getting more active and a couple of waves of showers are possible next week that could bring more much-needed rainfall. Crop conditions may fall on the crop report due out this afternoon, but the trend may start to reverse if the rain manifests as forecast for the rest of this month.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues through next week, though not as much will fall in the northeast. Still, the situation is very favorable for winter crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

ONE LAST COLD BURST FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

Very cold air earlier this week in the Black Sea region has renewed thoughts of winterkill in winter wheat. Another brief cold shot will move through early next week. Despite the cold, systems are becoming more frequent and starting to ease some deficits. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

SOME RAIN FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

The overall trend in Australia has been drier for cotton and sorghum despite some recent spotty rain. However, scattered showers are forecast for New South Wales this weekend and it's possible more showers will develop in the east late next week. However, the drier trend has been long and will need a lot of moisture to reverse. Crop conditions are still overall poor for cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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