Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmer air trying to move through the U.S. and chances for rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MIXED TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST, WARMER NEXT WEEK

Southern areas of the Midwest saw a streak of snow on Tuesday. Temperatures will try to rise this week, but eastern areas are not likely to see above-normal readings. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes with snow on Thursday and Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air will win out next week and will open the door for a few larger storm systems for mid-February.

WARM NOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Relatively warm temperatures in the Central and Southern Plains this week should melt the remaining snow in the region. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for at least a little while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February and may start later next week.

VERY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Warmer air is forecast in the Northern Plains through next week. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation, but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

HAZARDS CONTINUING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Ice moving through the river systems is creating some issues for transportation. Rising temperatures are helping to break things up and melt any snow or ice in the region. Water levels are dropping again after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to transportation issues since the fall and are not expected to change much in the coming weeks. The region needs a more active weather pattern, and that may start up later next week.

CENTRAL BRAZIL CHANGING TO SAFRINHA CROPS IN FEBRUARY

Heavy rain continues in central Brazil, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning for the coming corn crop if the rains aren't consistently heavier over the next two months.

CHANCES FOR RAIN IN DRY ARGENTINA

Dryness concerns continue to mount in Argentina, especially across the central and south. However, a front will move into southern areas on Wednesday and produce some showers through Friday, which will be somewhat helpful. The weather pattern for February indeed looks more active, which could be helpful depending on how rain develops. If the rains fail to be widespread or heavy, crop conditions will continue to fall and later-planted crops will feel the stress after a very dry January.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time, and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues this week, though areas in the northeast have been drier lately. Still, the situation is very favorable for winter crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

COLD AIR MOVING OUT OF THE BLACK SEA REGION

Very cold air in the Black Sea region this week has renewed thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat but will push eastward by the weekend. Despite the cold, systems moving through could add some beneficial precipitation and snow cover this week and next. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

SOME RAIN FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

The overall trend in Australia continues to be drier for cotton and sorghum areas despite some recent spotty rain. Some showers may develop in New South Wales this weekend but probably will not be enough to reverse the drier trend for cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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