Ag Weather Forum

Warmer air is sitting out in the Western United States and has been for a couple of weeks. It hasn't been extremely warm or above normal, but certainly a zone that has only little hints of winter left in it. That warmth will be trying to move eastward this week but largely fail. However, next week it will have much more success. That change in the pattern will be a relief from the frigid conditions those in the East have been dealing with, but it could also spark a more active winter storm pattern through the middle of the country.

Cold air has been lodged in the Eastern U.S. for some time now, while some extreme cold dipped all the way down into Florida during the last few days. This week, temperatures have moderated and it's not nearly as cold as last week. However, below-normal temperatures are still found east of the Mississippi River.

The western warmth has spread into the Plains and will continue to try pushing eastward this week, but it will be difficult. That is especially true as a strong clipper and arctic blast moves through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday, continuing the cold over the Eastern U.S. into early next week.

But that looks like the end of the source of arctic air for at least a little while yet. The pattern will change and the upper-level ridge that is building the warmth in the West will shift to the East next week. That will deliver above-normal temperatures to most of the U.S. east of the Rockies; for parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley, anomalies could be significantly above normal. It should also mean a more vigorous storm track through the middle of the country and while temperatures are forecast to be above normal, they could still be low enough for some wintry precipitation in some areas.

As the ridge spreads east, an upper-level trough will take its place in the West. When it sends its energy eastward in mid-February, likely in multiple bursts, it should mean some storm systems that will move all the way across the country with multiple impacts.

These impacts will be determined by the details of each storm -- how much of a temperature contrast is on either side of the storm, how much moisture is available and will be drawn up from the Gulf, how much resistance the eastern ridge will provide, and many others. Those details matter, but they are also difficult to determine more than a week out. However, there is some significant potential in the pattern to suggest we could see multiple winter storms with snow impacts and heavy rain, and possibly even some severe weather.

The pattern looks a lot more active and though the weather will not be as frigid as it was in late January, it can still be cold enough to deliver some bigtime snow. In February, that is most likely for the Northern and Central Plains through the Midwest and Northeast; but again, the details will matter. Though temperatures are forecast to be above normal throughout this period, models are notoriously bad at producing exact temperatures beyond the next five days and could easily be wrong. For example, cold air that moves in briefly behind one departing storm system may still linger for the next one. That could turn what looks like rain over to snow, primarily on the northern edge. Depending on the storm track, storms that happen to track across the south could still deliver some wintry impacts.

Such was the setup for the mega winter storm that moved through the southern half of the country on Jan. 23-25. Widespread heavy snow and freezing rain caused catastrophic issues for two dozen states. What was different about that setup, though, was the preceding arctic air. Any bursts of colder air will now be based from the milder Pacific Ocean. The ocean can still bring some shots of below-normal air, but the extreme cold is not likely, leading to more rain and snow transitions than rain, ice, and snow ones.

This pattern looks to be most in line from Feb. 10-24 and may extend beyond that into early March. During those three weeks, we could see a couple of big winter storm systems.

So, while Punxsutawney Phil's prognostication for an extended winter on Groundhog Day might have been wrong about the temperature profile of six more weeks of winter, he could still be right about the precipitation impacts.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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