Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmer air trying to move through the U.S. and chances for rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MIXED TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Southern areas of the Midwest will see a streak of snow on Tuesday. Temperatures will try to rise this week, but eastern areas are not likely to see above-normal readings. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Thursday and Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air is likely to win out next week, however.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Cold air was pushed out of the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. Relatively warm temperatures this week should melt the remaining snow. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for at least a little while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

OVERALL WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Warmer air will stick around the Northern Plains all week and is forecast for next week, too. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation, but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

HAZARDS CONTINUE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

It was dry in the Delta over the weekend, but very cold. Ice moving through the river systems is creating some issues for transportation. A system will move through on Tuesday with scattered showers, but precipitation appears to be lighter until at least next week. Water levels should drop again after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to transportation issues of their own.

CENTRAL BRAZIL CHANGING TO SAFRINHA CROPS IN FEBRUARY

Heavy rain fell in central Brazil over the weekend and continues this week, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning if the rains aren't consistently heavier over the next two months.

CHANCES FOR RAIN IN DRY ARGENTINA

Dryness concerns continue to mount in Argentina, especially across the central and south. However, a front will move into southern areas on Wednesday and produce some showers through Friday, which will be somewhat helpful. The weather pattern for February indeed looks more active, which could be helpful depending on how rain develops. If the rain fails, crop conditions will continue to fall and later-planted crops will feel the stress after a very dry January.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time now and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues this week, though areas in the northeast have been drier lately. Still, the situation is very favorable for winter crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

MORE COLD AIR IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Very cold air moved back into the Black Sea region over the weekend and will take several days to push eastward this week. The cold has renewed thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat. Despite the cold, systems moving through could add some beneficial precipitation and snow cover this week and next. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

SOME RAIN FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Spotty showers fell in eastern Australia over the weekend, but the overall trend continues to be drier for cotton and sorghum areas. Some showers may develop later this week as well, though heat will be a problem if the showers do not materialize in a meaningful way.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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