Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong arctic cold front, a major winter storm system, recent cold air in the Black Sea region, and dryness in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MIDWEST STAYING COLD THROUGH NEXT WEEK, HEAVY SNOW SOUTH

A significant arctic cold front will sweep through the Midwest on Thursday, leading to some extremely cold air for Friday through Monday. A system will move across the South and should clip the southern half of the region with some snow, which should be heavy near and south of I-70. Though the harshest temperatures will moderate next week, a few clippers should bring reinforcing shots of cold air and some more light snow. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill on winter wheat.

EXTREME COLD AND MAJOR WINTER STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong arctic cold front will sweep south on Friday which will bring in some extremely cold air to the Central and Southern Plains. In addition, a system will form along the front and produce widespread wintry conditions across the region for Friday night and Saturday. Areas of heavy snow and ice are in the forecast. Some of that snow may protect areas of winter wheat from the harsh temperatures, but significant damage is looking likely.

ARCTIC COLD FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A significant arctic cold front is moving through the Northern Plains on Thursday and temperatures will be well below normal. Temperatures should moderate some next week, but will still be cold, reinforced by a couple of more clippers moving through.

LOW WATER LEVELS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL GET A BOOST FROM A MAJOR SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND

Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be low, though not dangerously so. Some beneficial showers moved across the region on Wednesday and a major winter storm will move through this weekend. That should help to boost water levels on the river and help to ease some of the growing drought in the region. That will be accompanied by a burst of arctic air and local rivers may have to worry about ice jams because of it next week.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans. South-central areas will stay drier, possibly through next week. That may include some significant areas of filling soybeans that could cut the top off of yields in some areas. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

MODELS INCREASE SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. A few spotty showers may develop across the south this weekend, but coverage is forecast to be low. Models have increased chances for spotty showers for more of the country next week, but the prospects are still low.

OVERALL GOOD CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. Storms continue to run into the west, but will spread through the Mediterranean later this week and weekend and may spread some showers across the north next week as well.

COLD AIR EASING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Extremely cold air sat across much of the Black Sea region last week and continues in western Russia through Monday. Temperatures should rise next week. Snow cover is not sufficient to protect all of the wheat from the recent and forecast cold temperatures. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

STILL OVERALL DRY IN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though that is somewhat mixed across the east, where spotty showers have been able to hold back the dryness a bit. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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