Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong arctic cold front, a major winter storm system for the South, cold air in the Black Sea region, and dryness in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MIDWEST STAYING COLD THROUGH NEXT WEEK

A pair of clippers are bringing some light snow and cold air to the Midwest for Wednesday and Thursday. A significant arctic cold front will sweep through the region on Thursday night, leading to some significantly cold air for Friday and Saturday. A system will move across the southern tier of the country but should clip the southern half of the region with some snow, which may be heavy in spots. Though the harshest temperatures will moderate next week, a few clippers should bring reinforcing shots of cold air and some more light snow. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill on winter wheat.

EXTREME COLD AND MAJOR WINTER STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong arctic cold front will sweep south on Friday, which will bring in some extremely cold air into the Central and Southern Plains. In addition, a system will form along the front and produce widespread wintry conditions across the region for Friday night and Saturday. Areas of heavy snow and ice are in the forecast. Some of that snow may protect areas of winter wheat from the harsh temperatures, but significant damage is looking likely.

LARGELY COLD WITH CLIPPERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A clipper is moving through the Northern Plains with some light snow and strong winds for Wednesday. But a significant arctic cold front will follow it starting on Thursday. Temperatures should moderate some next week, but will still be cold, reinforced by a couple of more clippers moving through.

LOW WATER LEVELS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GET A BOOST FROM A MAJOR SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK

Water levels on the Mississippi River are falling this week and continue to be low, though not dangerously so. Some showers will move across the region Wednesday and Thursday and a major winter storm will move through this weekend. That should help to boost water levels on the river and help to ease some of the growing drought in the region. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air and local rivers may have to worry about ice jams because of it next week.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

A front moved through southern Brazil over the weekend and will be enhancing showers over central Brazil this week. That is favorable for filling soybeans. South-central areas will stay drier, possibly through next week. That may include some significant areas of filling soybeans that could cut the top off of yields in some areas. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

STILL DRY FOR MOST OF ARGENTINA

It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. A few spotty showers may develop across the south this weekend, but coverage is forecast to be low. Dryness likely continues next week as well.

OVERALL GOOD CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. Storms will continue to run into the west this week, but will spread through the Mediterranean later this week and weekend.

COLD AIR EASING, BUT REMAINING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Extremely cold air sat across much of the Black Sea region over the weekend and continues for much of this week. Another push of arctic air is forecast over western Russia this weekend, but temperatures should rise next week. Snow cover is not sufficient to protect all of the wheat from the recent and forecast cold temperatures. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

STILL OVERALL DRY IN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though that is somewhat mixed across the east, where spotty showers have been able to hold back the dryness a bit. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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