Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several clippers moving through the U.S. with cold air and areas of snow, harsh cold in the Black Sea region, and areas of dryness in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

CLIPPERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH SHOWERS, BURSTS OF COLD

Winter is back in the Midwest as clippers continue to move through with limited showers through the middle of next week. Though some milder temperatures may move in ahead of each clipper, the trend is for below-normal temperatures and we may have to watch for a bigger system and stronger burst of cold air to move through at the end of next week.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONCERNED FOR RETURN OF COLD AIR

Wheat has limited cold hardiness in the Central and Southern Plains after recent weeks of warmth. Though some colder temperatures will occur over the next few mornings, the pattern is more threatening by the end of next week. To go along with a push of some cold air, there could be wintry weather as well. There is significant uncertainty in the specifics, however, and that matters because of the timing. If snow can develop before the cold air comes in, or the cold air only leaks down into northern portions of the region, wheat will be more protected. If not, the cold could have more widespread damaging impacts.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS, COLDER NEXT WEEK

Clippers are bringing more cold air through the Northern Plains going into the middle of next week, but away from the mountains. It will not be significantly below normal until later next week as cold air pools up in Canada and leaks southward through the region for the end of January.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS PEAKING NEXT WEEK

Water levels on the Mississippi River are getting a boost from a system that brought showers late last week, but are still low and not a long-term solution to the low water levels. Clipper systems moving through this week into next are not providing a meaningful boost to levels either. A better storm track through the region will be necessary. That may start late next week or weekend, but is forecast to be more favorable in February and March.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL, GETTING HEAVIER NEXT WEEK

Rainfall coverage has increased across central Brazil this week, which is beneficial for filling soybeans. Recent heat and limited showers may have been somewhat stressful in some areas, but the rain is likely to relieve much of that stress. A front will move up from Argentina this weekend to give some showers to southern areas going into next week, and enhance showers in central Brazil around the middle of next week.

CROP CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA CONTINUE TO FALL

Southern and central Argentina have been much drier and are seeing soil moisture and crop conditions falling. A front will sweep through the country on Friday with some showers lingering over northern areas this weekend. Rainfall amounts may be impressive for locations in the north, but the south continues to look very dry. After the front leaves this weekend, dryness looks to continue next week. Crop conditions are forecast to continue falling, which has been planned for by many producers that understand the risk for dryness in January. There will be some effect for corn and soybeans, however.

ACTIVE WEATHER FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. The storm track remains active but will favor the west for the next week. Some areas in the south and southeast may dry out a bit, but are still in good shape. Longer-range forecasts have precipitation increasing across more of the continent later next week.

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Cold air continues to sit in the Black Sea region through next week. Ukraine has better snow coverage, but that is more limited farther east, which may need to worry about winterkill damage. Very little protective snow is forecast through next week. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though that is somewhat mixed across the east. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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