Ag Weather Forum

For many areas east of the Rocky Mountains, January into early February is typically the coldest period of the year. Winter is still very much present across portions of the western and northern United States, but the South may get a taste of winter this weekend. Places like Savannah, Georgia, and Columbia, South Carolina, could be shoveling snow by Sunday.

A cold front on Jan. 14 swept across the eastern U.S. and cold air is seeping in behind it. Low temperatures on Friday morning will dip into the 20s and 30s degrees Fahrenheit for the Carolinas into Alabama and Georgia. As of Jan. 14, the National Weather Service issued widespread freeze watches from southern Georgia into central Florida. The local weather service office out of Miami, Florida, indicated that temperatures late Thursday night into Friday morning could get as low as 30 degrees F.

On Jan. 15, the National Weather Service in Miami issued cold weather advisories for much of southern Florida for Friday morning's cold wind chills. Wind chills could get as low as 30 degrees F near Miami. Freeze watches received upgrades to freeze warnings through the northern two-thirds of Florida on Jan. 15. Low temperatures could bottom out near 28-32 degrees F Friday morning. This could end up being the coldest stretch of weather for Florida this winter, and it also threatens Florida's citrus crop, which is currently at the peak of its season.

Cold air in the Southeast looks persistent through at least the middle of next week, and along with the persistent cold comes a risk of snow. Another cold front will arrive across the Southeast late Friday into Saturday and mainly provide scattered, light rain showers, except for snow in the southern Appalachians. By Sunday, the cold front could extend just offshore the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast into the eastern Gulf. Another storm system is forecast to form along the cold front on Sunday, leading to some snow across Georgia and the Carolinas.

Sunday's storm track will determine how far inland the snow develops. If the storm system takes on a more westerly track, snow could extend into Mobile, Alabama, and Atlanta, Georgia. A more easterly track would favor most of the snow falling across the eastern Carolinas and southern Georgia. Currently, the eastern track is favored, which could lead to 1-2 inches of snow falling across southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas.

The potential for snow this weekend coincidentally lines up with the major winter storm that blasted the Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. almost a year ago, on Jan. 19-22. However, the storms and their setups are quite a bit different. Last year, moisture from the Gulf got transported north across the cold air in the Southeast, creating a perfect recipe for heavy snowfall. As a storm system from the central Gulf edged closer to the Southeast, this promoted the collision of moist air over colder and drier air, which led to high snow-to-liquid ratios. This lent to drier and fluffier snow that could accumulate faster.

Moisture from the Gulf won't play a significant role in this weekend's storm as drier air will reside across the Southeast. Winds from the south won't be present to transport moist air north. Instead, winds will primarily be from the west and northwest. After the storm drops snow in southern Georgia and the Carolinas, it is expected to move northeast and affect coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic. Snow totals may approach 1-2 inches in southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland and southern Delaware.

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Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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