Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several clippers moving through the U.S. with cold air and areas of snow, harsh cold in the Black Sea region, and areas of dryness in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

CLIPPERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH SHOWERS, BURSTS OF COLD

Several clippers are moving through the Midwest with variable temperatures and limited showers going into next week. Though some milder temperatures may move in ahead of each clipper, the trend is for below-normal temperatures through next week and we may have to watch for a bigger system and stronger burst of cold air to move through at the end of next week.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONCERNED FOR RETURN OF COLD AIR

Above-normal temperatures this week have melted the snow that fell in the southwestern Plains over the weekend. Wheat has limited cold hardiness after recent weeks of warmth. But eventually some colder air is likely to move down into the region and threaten more of the wheat. Though some cooler temperatures will occur this weekend, the pattern may be a bit more threatening by the end of next week.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A couple more days of warmth are on tap in the Northern Plains before the pattern collapses and turns to a colder one this weekend and especially next week with more clippers bringing down arctic air.

SLIGHT BUMP ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS WEEK, BUT CONTINUING TO BE LOW

Water levels on the Mississippi River are getting a boost from a system that brought showers late last week but are still low and not a long-term solution to the low water levels. Clipper systems moving through this week will not provide a meaningful boost to levels either. A better storm track through the region will be necessary. That may start late next week or weekend but is forecast to be more favorable in February and March.

SHOWERS FILLING BACK IN ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL

Rainfall coverage is increasing across central Brazil this week, which is beneficial for filling soybeans. Recent heat and limited showers may have been somewhat stressful in some areas, but the coming rain is likely to relieve much of that stress. A front will move up from Argentina this weekend to give some showers to southern areas going into next week and enhance showers in central Brazil around the middle of next week.

DESPITE ANOTHER FRONT, SOUTHERN ARGENTINA CONTINUES TO BE DRIER

Southern and central Argentina have been much drier and are seeing soil moisture and crop conditions falling. A front brought some isolated showers to southern areas on Tuesday but was neither widespread nor heavy. Another will sweep through the country on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts may be impressive for a couple of lucky locations in the north, but the south continues to look dry. Crop conditions are forecast to continue falling, which has been planned for by many producers that understand the risk for dryness in January. There will be some effect, however.

ACTIVE WEATHER FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN EUROPE

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. The storm track remains active but will favor the west and north for the next week. Some areas in the south and southeast may dry out a bit but are still in good shape. Longer-range forecasts have precipitation increasing across more of the continent later next week.

COLD AIR SPREADING THROUGH BLACK SEA REGION

Cold air in Ukraine is spreading to western Russia. Ukraine had better snow coverage, but that is more limited farther east, which may need to worry about winterkill damage as the cold air sticks around through next week and may be intense. Some limited snow continues through Friday, but little protection is forecast. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas have decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing or reproductive stage cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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