Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several clippers moving through the U.S. with eventual cold air, harsh cold in the Black Sea region, and areas of dryness in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

CLIPPERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH LIMITED SHOWERS, BURSTS OF COLD

A system brought widespread rain changing to snow to the Midwest over the weekend, which was heavier across some areas of Michigan and included some lake-effect. Several clippers will move through this week and next with variable temperatures and limited showers. We may have to watch for a bigger system and stronger burst of cold air to move through by the end of next week.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WORRYING ABOUT RETURN OF COLD AIR

A band of snow fell across the southwestern Plains on Friday and protected some of the winter wheat from cold over the weekend. Above-normal temperatures this week should help to melt the snow. But eventually some colder air is likely to move down into the region and threaten more of the winter wheat as it has abnormally low cold hardiness after several weeks of relative warmth. The pattern may be a bit more threatening by the end of next week.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A brief burst of some colder air moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but was quickly replaced by significant warmth. Several days of warmth are on tap before the pattern collapses and turns to a colder one this weekend and especially next week with more clippers bringing down arctic air.

SLIGHT BUMP ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS WEEK, BUT CONTINUING TO BE LOW

Water levels on the Mississippi River are getting a boost from a system that brought showers late last week, but are still low and not a long-term solution to the low water levels. Clipper systems moving through this week are not likely to provide a meaningful boost to levels either.

SHOWERS FILLING BACK IN ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEK

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend with widespread showers and will continue over south-central areas with needed rain the next couple of days. Models are also increasing rainfall coverage across the rest of central Brazil this week, which may be beneficial for filling soybeans if it comes true. Recent heat and limited showers may have been somewhat stressful in some areas, but the coming rain is likely to relieve much of that stress.

DESPITE TWO FRONTS, SOUTHERN ARGENTINA CONTINUES TO BE DRIER

A front moved out of northern Argentina this weekend, which is in fairly good shape for corn and soybeans. Southern and central areas have been much drier and are seeing soil moisture and crop conditions falling. A front will bring some isolated showers to southern areas on Tuesday and another will sweep through the country on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts may be impressive for a couple of lucky locations, but are more likely to occur over the north yet again. Crop conditions are forecast to continue falling, which has been planned for by many producers that understand the risk for dryness in January. There will be some effect, however.

WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTING TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN EUROPE

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. The storm track remains active but will favor the west and north. Some areas in the south and southeast may dry out a bit, but are still in good shape.

COLD AIR SPREADING THROUGH BLACK SEA REGION

Cold air moved into Ukraine over the weekend and will migrate to western Russia this week. Ukraine had better snow coverage, but that is more limited farther east, which may need to worry about winterkill damage as the cold air sticks around through next week. Some limited showers will fall early this week, but will dry out with time. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas have decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather continues for most areas this week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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