Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another system bringing snow to portions of the U.S., a threat of some colder air next week, and areas of dryness in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ONE MORE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH RAIN AND SNOW

A system moved through the Midwest on Thursday and is exiting Friday after producing some heavy rain. Another system will move through this weekend with more showers and snow, especially near the Great Lakes where lake-effect snow will occur into Sunday. Temperatures may drop for a day or so, but are forecast to rise again early next week. However, clipper systems moving through next week will eventually bring back some colder air, especially at the end of the week.

SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS, COLD AIR RISKS LATER NEXT WEEK

Temperatures have been well above normal, which has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat in the Central and Southern Plains. A system moved through on Thursday with widespread rain. Another moves through on Friday, which has access to some colder air and is producing a band of snow from Colorado into Kansas. Temperatures should rise again next week. The shot of colder air is not a harsh one, but areas not covered in snow could see some issues with winterkill in the short-term. There is a much larger long-term risk for when significant cold air inevitably returns, maybe at the end of next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK, THEN FALLING

Temperatures continue to be largely above normal for the Northern Plains into early next week. Some spotty showers may develop into Saturday, but any heavy precipitation is well off to the south and east. Clipper systems will be possible next week, though the track may be to the east. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to temperatures because of this, but there is a threat of cold air returning by late next week.

LOW WATER LEVELS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER GETTING A BUMP

Water levels along the Mississippi River are low, but not extremely so. A pair of systems are bringing widespread rain Thursday and especially Friday, and should provide a meaningful boost next week. But this is not a long-term solution to the low water levels and transportation concerns. The setup for that may have to wait until February, but is expected to arrive.

BRIEF PERIOD OF LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers in central Brazil have thinned out. Recent rain there has been helpful for soybeans as more and more of the crop is setting pods. That process accelerates throughout January, the most important month for rainfall in the country. But with soil moisture still running very low, the coverage of showers will be more important than normal over the next six weeks or so. Shower coverage may increase with time next week. Southern areas are still in much better shape. A front moving in will produce some beneficial rounds of rainfall this weekend and may linger over Parana for next week.

SOUTHERN ARGENTINA CONTINUES TO BE DRIER

Rainfall has been running below- ormal for a while across southern and central Argentina while northern areas have had much better coverage and amounts in recent weeks. The same is true with a front that continues across the north on Friday. Northern areas are getting better rainfall coverage and amounts, where conditions are largely favorable. Heat stress has been minimal so far this season however, allowing the water that is still in the soil more time to be beneficial for developing corn and soybeans across the south. But this is an area to watch for falling crop conditions.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS EUROPE, COLD IN THE NORTHEAST

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. An active weather pattern continues through next week, which will maintain this trend. Northern areas have been much colder though, which may leave some exposed areas at a minor risk of winterkill in Poland and the surrounding areas.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING NEEDED PRECIPITATION, COLD AIR COMING NEXT WEEK

The weather pattern is a bit more active in the Black Sea region, which is favorable for building some soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. Warmer temperatures have melted some of that recent snow and models suggest that colder air will return next week, which could be threatening in some areas that remain barren of snow.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas have decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather continues for most areas through next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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