Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A pair of systems that will move through the U.S. in a warmer pattern, and areas of dryness in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

TWO SYSTEMS SETTING UP TO MOVE THROUGH WARM MIDWEST

Temperatures continue well above normal in the Midwest for the next few days. A pair of systems will move through later this week and weekend. The first will be largely rain for Thursday into Friday with some limited northern snow, but the second will have access to some colder air that should bring through a band of snow and a brief burst of lake-effect snow. Temperatures may drop for a day or so, but are forecast to rise again next week. Models may trend downward though as the pattern switches to allow a few clippers to move through next week.

POTENTIAL SNOW TO END THE WEEK FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures continue to be above normal in the Central and Southern Plains, which has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat. A system will move through early on Thursday with scattered rain followed by another on Friday, which will have access to some colder air and produce a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures should rise again next week. The shot of colder air is not a harsh one, and areas not covered in snow could see some issues with winterkill in the short-term. But there is a much larger long-term risk for when significant cold air inevitably returns.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK

Temperatures continue to be largely above normal in the Northern Plains into early next week with little interruption. Some spotty showers may move through on occasion, but the main storm track will bypass the region. Clipper systems will be possible next week, though the track may be to the east. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to temperatures because of this, but there is a threat of cold air returning.

LOW WATER LEVELS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER GETTING A BUMP LATER THIS WEEK

Water levels along the Mississippi River are low and falling for the next few days. A pair of systems will bring widespread rain later this week and should provide a meaningful boost, but not a long-term solution to the low water levels and transportation concerns.

RAIN IN EAST-CENTRAL BRAZIL THINNING OUT THIS WEEK

Scattered showers in central Brazil have been heavy over the last several days, which is helping soybeans as more and more of the crop is setting pods. That process accelerates in January, the most important month for rainfall in the country. Showers are starting to thin out, however. With soil moisture still running very low, the coverage of showers will be more important than normal over the next six weeks or so. Shower coverage may increase with time next week. Southern areas are still in much better shape. A front moving in on Thursday will produce some more beneficial rounds of rainfall into the weekend.

SOUTHERN ARGENTINA CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER

Rainfall has been running below normal for a while across southern and central Argentina while northern areas have had much better coverage and amounts in recent weeks. The same is true with a pair of fronts moving through over the next few days. Northern areas stand better chances for rainfall in both coverage and amounts, where conditions are largely favorable. Heat stress has been minimal so far this season however, allowing the water that is still in the soil more time to be beneficial for developing corn and soybeans across the south. But this is an area to watch for falling crop conditions.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS EUROPE

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. A very active weather pattern continues through next week, which will maintain this trend. It continues to be colder over northern areas though, which may leave some exposed areas at a minor risk of winterkill in Poland and the surrounding areas.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION

The weather pattern is becoming a bit more active in the Black Sea region, which is favorable for building some snowpack and soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. Areas at risk of winterkill are low because of the northern snowpack, but warmer temperatures later this week could threaten to melt a good portion of that recent snow. Models continue to suggest that colder air will return next week, which could be threatening in some areas.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas have decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather continues for most areas through next week and will not be favorable for developing cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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