Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another stretch of warmth for the U.S. followed by a potentially impactful winter system to end the week, and an uneven distribution of rain in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WARM MIDWEST AWAITING WINTER STORM

Temperatures continue above normal in the Midwest for the next few days. However, it is still cold enough for limited showers across the north to become freezing rain or snow for Tuesday. A pair of systems will move through later this week and weekend. The first will be largely rain for Thursday into Friday, but the second will have access to some colder air that should bring through a band of snow for the Upper Midwest. Temperatures may drop for a day or so, but are forecast to rise again next week. Models may trend downward though as the pattern switches to allow a few clippers to move through next week.

POTENTIAL SNOW TO END THE WEEK FOR WARM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures continue to be above normal in the Central and Southern Plains for the next few days. A system will move through early on Thursday with scattered rain followed by another on Friday, which will have access to some colder air and produce a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures should rise again next week. Warmer air recently has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat, which is now at risk for a shot of colder air that inevitably will return at some point this month. Snow falling later this week will help to protect wheat from damage in the short-term, but there is a much larger long-term risk.

NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF THE STORM TRACK THIS WEEK

Temperatures continue to be largely above normal for the Northern Plains into early next week with little interruption. Some spotty showers may move through on occasion, but the main storm track will bypass the region. Clipper systems will be possible next week, though the track may push east of the region. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to temperatures because of this.

LOW WATER LEVELS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER GETTING A BUMP LATER THIS WEEK

Water levels on the Mississippi River are low and falling for the next few days. A pair of systems will bring widespread rain later this week and should provide a meaningful boost, but not a long-term solution to the low water levels and transportation concerns.

HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL THINNING OUT THIS WEEK

Scattered showers in central Brazil have been heavy over the last few days, which is helping soybeans as more and more of the crop is setting pods. That process accelerates in January, the most important month for rainfall in the country. Showers will be widespread early this week, but should thin out with time. With soil moisture still running very low, the coverage of showers will be more important than normal over the next six weeks or so. Southern areas are still in much better shape. A front moving in later this week will produce some more beneficial rounds of rainfall into the weekend.

SOUTHERN ARGENTINA CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER

Rainfall has been running below normal for a while across southern and central Argentina while northern areas have had much better coverage and amounts in recent weeks. The same is true with a pair of fronts moving through this week. Northern areas stand better chances for rainfall in both coverage and amounts, where conditions are largely favorable. Heat stress has been minimal so far this season however, allowing the water that is still in the soil more time to be beneficial for developing corn and soybeans across the south. But this is an area to watch for falling crop conditions.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS EUROPE

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. A very active weather pattern is in place this week, which will continue this trend. It will be colder over northern areas though, which may leave some exposed areas at a minor risk of winterkill.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION

The weather pattern is starting to become a bit more active in the Black Sea region, which is favorable for building some snowpack and soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. Areas at risk of winterkill are low because of the northern snowpack that is now building. Warmer temperatures later this week could threaten to melt a good portion of that recent snow, however. Models suggest that colder air will return next week, which could be threatening in some areas.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas are running with decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather for most areas this week will not be favorable for developing cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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