Sort and Cull

After a truly unprecedented year in 2025 where live cattle, feeder cattle and boxed beef prices all ran to prices unfathomable at the year's start, 2026 is also off to an aggressive rally as the market's bullish sentiment for the year ahead is undeniable.

In case you haven't been tracking the markets during the last two weeks amid the holiday run between Christmas and the new year, here are a couple of major takeaways:

First, one thing that's really seemed to wake up the cattle complex during the last couple trading days is traders finally pushed the live cattle contracts over the market's 100-day moving average. This had been a significant technical barrier since the market plummeted in late October. But on Jan. 2, traders bullishly ran the complex higher amid their bullish beliefs about what's to come in 2026.

Second, the fed cash cattle market continues to scale higher and higher. Even though packers ran tighter kill schedules during the last two weeks, the fed cash cattle market continues to be a sore spot for packers as they don't want to chase the cash market and see prices scale higher, but they need the cattle. Just last week, Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $360, which is $4 higher than the previous week's weighted average and some live sales were marked in Kansas at mostly $232, which is $3 higher than the previous week's weighted average. And to understand just how strong these prices are, do note that last week's trade of $360 in the North and $232 in the South is just $10 softer than the highest prices scored in 2025 for live prices, and $26 softer than the highest prices scored in 2025 for dressed prices.

And last, the other bullish factor that continues to linger in the back of minds for producers and traders is the fact that the market's tightest supplies are still ahead of us. There are folks who believe the Cattle Inventory report that's shared later this month could hint there's been slight developments in rebuilding the cowherd; however, there's equally as many people that believe the cowherd has simply stabilized. Regardless, when the industry does start to see rebuilding occur, and fewer females line the bunk and contribute to on-feed totals, then feeder cattle are going to become even sparser and prices stand a strong chance to go even higher.

It would be reckless of me to leave you with a list full of bullish points and not remind you that plenty of bearish factors continue to linger in the bushes for the cattle complex in 2026. As we keenly know as operators, risk and volatility are becoming increasingly bigger factors to monitor in the marketplace, and it's anyone's guess on when the border could reopen to Mexican cattle imports.

So, with all things considered, here's to 2026, my friends! The cattle market is ready to run, and it's off to an aggressive start.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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