DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A small trough is located across the south-central U.S. with troughing still lingering in the Northeast. Eventually a trough from the East Pacific will build across the West this weekend, nudging a ridge into the center of the country.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A pattern change is expected after the middle of next week as waves of energy from the West drop into the Plains and Mississippi Valley, providing increased chances for rain and wintry precipitation.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Above-average temperatures will build across much of the country going into early next week. Cooler air will eventually develop across the West as the warmth shifts east of the Mississippi later next week. Toward mid-January, another blast of Arctic air could enter the center of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...84 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW THU...17 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...SAN DIEGO, CA 2.17 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A small trough is located across the south-central U.S. with troughing still lingering in the Northeast. Eventually a trough from the East Pacific will build across the West this weekend, nudging a ridge into the center of the country. A pattern change is expected after the middle of next week as waves of energy from the West drop into the Plains and Mississippi Valley, providing increased chances for rain and wintry precipitation.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Above-average temperatures will build across much of the country going into early next week. Cooler air will eventually develop across the West as the warmth shifts east of the Mississippi later next week. Toward mid-January, another blast of Arctic air could enter the center of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Temperatures have been fluctuating between above and below average as clipper systems tag the eastern Dakotas this week. By late this weekend, a dramatic warm up is expected throughout most of the region that could last into at least the middle of next week. Precipitation through the weekend is expected to remain relatively light with any quick-moving systems that pass through.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures have started to recover above average after the quick shot of cooler air earlier in the week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast until the middle of next week, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air has been awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns towards mid-January.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Clipper systems have been providing rounds of light snow to northern and eastern areas of the Midwest throughout the week. Temperatures have also cooled off behind some of these clippers, but by early next week, a major warm up could develop before larger systems from the West start arriving during the second half of the week. Another blast of Arctic air could redevelop closer to mid-January.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels along the Mississippi River are still concerning as precipitation remains limited. A few light rain showers will push through the area today and with temperatures on the rise early next week in northern areas, some snowmelt may give a slight boost to water levels. The next round of heavier precipitation may not arrive until the middle of next week across the Delta.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Soybeans will continue to fill pods across central Brazil and this will accelerate in January. Widespread rain showers continue across central Brazil through early next week but coverage could become more limited across east-central areas later in the week. Showers in southern Brazil have been favorable for maturing corn, and a brief break in the rain is possible late this weekend into early next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Fronts have been moving through northern areas and providing consistent rainfall, favorable for pollinating corn. Moisture levels are falling across southern Argentina as precipitation misses to their north, increasing stress on developing corn and soybeans. By the second half of next week, fronts may bring slightly higher chances for isolated to scattered showers across central and southern areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A larger system moves through Friday and Saturday across the southwest, benefiting vegetative wheat in Spain. Widespread showers could favor southern Europe late this weekend into next week, favorable for vegetative winter wheat. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat. Cooler temperatures will start spreading south late this weekend with many areas across Europe seeing below-average temperatures next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Portions of the Caucasus saw a round of heavier snow during the middle of the week with lighter showers in Ukraine. Brief cold snaps through early next week could cause some winterkill in areas without adequate snow cover. Multiple large systems could move through Ukraine and southwest Russia during the first half of next week, increasing snow cover in some areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture is still mixed around the wheat belt. Wheat and canola harvest is nearing the end with overall favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is nearly completed and is finding some unfortunate dryness in a lot of areas, causing stress. Most precipitation favors eastern Australia going into next week with southern and western areas remaining relatively dry.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been relatively limited this week. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. Very little precipitation is forecast going into mid-January, which may start to become a concern if the trend doesn't reverse over the winter.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers east Wednesday-Thursday.

Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at Teresa.Wells@dtn.com

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