DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a ridge building across the West. Through the middle of the week, a trough will dominate the East with a ridge in the West. Clipper systems will impact the north with multiple rounds of light snow.

Eventually a trough will build across the West this weekend and send waves of energy into the central U.S. during early January.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Cooler air will filter into the Central and Southern Plains early this week with temperatures trending warmer by mid-week. Temperatures will hover between below average and near average for north-central and eastern areas as clippers cause temperatures to fluctuate. Throughout the weekend and early next week, warmer temperatures from the West will nudge towards the Mississippi Valley.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...85 AT 18 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF OCHOPEE, FL AND 17 MILES EAST OF MILES CITY, FL

LOW MON...27 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...PORTLAND, ME 1.8 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a ridge building across the West. Through the middle of the week, a trough will dominate the East with a ridge in the West. Clipper systems will impact the north with multiple rounds of light snow.

Eventually a trough will build across the West this weekend and send waves of energy into the central U.S. during early January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Cooler air will filter into the Central and Southern Plains early this week with temperatures trending warmer by mid-week. Temperatures will hover between below average and near average for north-central and eastern areas as clippers cause temperatures to fluctuate. Throughout the weekend and early next week, warmer temperatures from the West will nudge towards the Mississippi Valley.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Blizzard conditions developed in the eastern Dakotas late this weekend as strong winds developed behind a large system. Temperatures will fluctuate between above and below average this week with most of the warmer temperatures favoring Montana and the western Dakotas. Clipper systems will provide light snow, mainly favoring the eastern Dakotas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front moved through late this weekend and temperatures plummeted below freezing in the Central Plains on Monday. After the middle of this week, temperatures will trend above average and warmth will continue through early next week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air has been awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): After last week's warmer temperatures, a stronger system entered the region on Sunday and Monday. Strong winds, blizzard conditions, heavy snow, and thunderstorms accompanied this system. Temperatures will cool off behind this system and clipper systems will move through during the middle of the week. The next large system may not arrive until the middle of next week, with rain and a wintry mix in northern areas.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Snowmelt across the Midwest brought a limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River last week, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. Showers will be limited this week with the next large system not arriving until the middle of next week. More consistent precipitation is needed to bring water levels up.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers were isolated over west-central Brazil last week while east-central areas have been very hot and dry, concerning for soybeans that continue to get into the pod-fill stage. That will accelerate in January. Rain showers will be more widespread across central Brazil this week and showers also look to continue across southern Brazil, favorable for maturing corn.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Fronts have been moving through northern areas and providing consistent rainfall, favorable for pollinating corn. Despite a drier stretch of weather across the south, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, but moisture levels are falling. Showers look isolated in the north this week with mostly dry conditions in central and southern areas, which could increase stress on developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Showers will be limited in the west through much of this week before a larger system moves through Friday and Saturday across the southwest. Widespread showers could favor the Mediterranean late this weekend or early next week, favorable for vegetative winter wheat. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat. Temperatures will remain below average in the north with more fluctuations in southern Europe.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Light snow showers favor Ukraine and southwest Russia this week with some areas of heavy snow in the Caucasus. A brief cold snap will arrive late this week, which could cause some winterkill in areas without adequate snow cover. However, temperatures rebound above average across much of western Russia and Ukraine this weekend and early next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture is still mixed around the wheat belt. Wheat and canola harvest is nearing the end with overall favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is nearly completed and is finding some unfortunate dryness in a lot of areas, causing stress. Showers look isolated for much of this week until a larger system could provide widespread rain to southeast Australia this weekend.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. A front from central China will move east during the middle of this week, but showers become isolated in eastern areas. Very little is forecast going into early January, which may start to become a concern if the trend doesn't reverse over the winter.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

East: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers east Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal east and above normal west Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal south and above normal north Friday-Saturday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at Teresa.Wells@dtn.com

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