Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stretch of record warmth for the U.S., and an uneven distribution of rain in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MIXED CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST, EXTREME SOUTHERN WARMTH

Warmer air is flooding the Midwest this week, melting what is left of the snowpack in most areas. A system will move through on Thursday and Friday, which will bring some showers, mostly as rain and freezing rain. Another system will move through this weekend with more potential showers and a brief burst of some colder air. That should not last long as temperatures rise again early next week. Another front and burst of cold may come in to start the new year, though.

RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will be record warm in the Central and Southern Plains over the next few days. A cold front will move through this weekend with a temperature drop, but will still be near to above normal behind it, and fill back in next week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air should awaken the wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE STORM TRACK, BUT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

Cold air lurking in Canada may leak into the Northern Plains over the next few days, but it should be overall warm. A few systems will move through over the next week, but with very limited precipitation in the forecast. A stronger cold front moving through on Saturday will send temperatures down for a day or two before they pop back up next week. Another colder shot could be possible later next week, too.

MIDWEST SNOWMELT CAUSING SMALL BUMP FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Warmth continues to melt snow across the Midwest, which will give a very limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. An overall dry forecast through the end of the year and into January is also concerning for river transportation.

RAIN SHIFTING OUT OF EASTERN BRAZIL

A front has stalled across southern Brazil and will be there for most of the week, producing widespread and largely beneficial rainfall, though some flooding may occur. Scattered showers continue over much of west-central Brazil this week, boosting soil moisture for soybeans that continue to move into the pod-fill stage. Some areas across the east in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais will get much less precipitation this week, which could be concerning as temperatures should be very hot when it is not raining. Rain is forecast to move back into these areas next week, though.

STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina this weekend with widespread rainfall, but some limited amounts across the south. That front has stalled across the far north where showers will continue for most of the week. Another front will move through this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

Showers continue across the Mediterranean through most of the week, being favorable for vegetative winter wheat across the south. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Dryness is still an issue for Black Sea winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. It continues to be dry for most of the week, with showers coming back in after Christmas Day. Overall, conditions are unfavorable for winter wheat. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free. Some snow will move in with colder air later this week.

ANOTHER DRY STRETCH FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture is still mixed around Australia's wheat belt. Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend and continue in the northeast for the next few days. But the rest of the country is forecast to dry out to end the calendar year. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition for early growth.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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