DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a primary trough across Hudson Bay with another trough in the Southwest. Additional disturbances are circling around the primary trough.

There is a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska that is supplying colder air into the trough. The frequent troughs and disturbances will continue through the weekend but the ridge will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough in Alaska and getting pushed down into the western U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Disturbances will continue over the top of that ridge and into the East next week as the primary trough is replaced by a ridge as well. This will setup a briefly milder pattern across much of the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are showing agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A series of clipper systems are forecast to continue next week that should bring through streaks of snow for the north and reinforce some of the cold.

However, the western ridge will bring some warmer temperatures that will leak into the Plains, pushing the cold air into the Midwest and Northeast. By the end of next week, the clippers will have little cold air to work with, but that will likely be a brief period of warmth for an overall colder December.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...88 AT BOCA RATON, FL, HOLLYWOOD, FL, AND ATLANTIS, FL

LOW TUE...15 BELOW ZERO AT ABERDEEN, SD

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST TUESDAY...MOBILE, AL 2.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a primary trough across Hudson Bay with another trough in the Southwest. Additional disturbances are circling around the primary trough.

There is a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska that is supplying colder air into the trough. The frequent troughs and disturbances will continue through the weekend but the ridge will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough in Alaska and getting pushed down into the western U.S.

Disturbances will continue over the top of that ridge and into the East next week as the primary trough is replaced by a ridge as well. This will setup a briefly milder pattern across much of the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are showing agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A series of clipper systems are forecast to continue next week that should bring through streaks of snow for the north and reinforce some of the cold.

However, the western ridge will bring some warmer temperatures that will leak into the Plains, pushing the cold air into the Midwest and Northeast. By the end of next week, the clippers will have little cold air to work with, but that will likely be a brief period of warmth for an overall colder December.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Cold air will continually be reinforced as systems and fronts move across the region through this weekend. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days.

Warmer air will spread into the region next week, but may only be brief.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Multiple fronts will continue to push through the region the rest of the week and weekend, with occasional showers and shots of colder air. Warmer air will move in next week with the main storm track shifting northward for a brief period.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A strong cold front will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday with some snow, but another push of intensely cold air. Systems afterward are favoring a clipper-like pattern for the weekend and next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Recent precipitation in the Midwest included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. The local shots of precipitation in the Delta have helped to raise water levels some, but are still low. Though some showers will move through the south on Thursday, the lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front has stalled over central Brazil and is producing scattered showers. Rainfall amounts on Tuesday were promising as models have not forecast this well in recent weeks. The current lack of significant soil moisture is likely to be noticeable with developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process that may be more noticeable in a couple of weeks if this keeps up.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Argentina will be dry for the rest of the week with the next front bringing showers in a patchy fashion this weekend into early next week. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor the northwest this week and next, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable in most areas as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers, which continues this week and mostly across Ukraine again.

Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers moved across southern areas this weekend into Monday, but missed a lot of others. Wheat and canola are undergoing harvest while cotton and sorghum are being planted. The later crops need some more moisture as those conditions are largely mixed across the country. Showers will be scant this week, though, and may be so next week as well.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated snow north. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered snow. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated snow Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday.

East: Scattered snow Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered snow north Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Western snow Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, north Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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