DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the East with a secondary trough entering the Northern Plains. Throughout the weekend, a trough will deepen in the Central U.S., providing a strong storm system to the Plains and Midwest. Cold air will follow the Central U.S. trough next week while another trough from western Canada digs south into the Plains in early December. Widespread rain could develop across the Southern Delta and Southeast with a cold front early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A cold and active weather pattern is forecast for early December that should mean multiple chances for wintry impacts for the first week of December.

The U.S. and European models are beginning to show agreement on the track of systems through early next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a big storm moves through the eastern half of the country this weekend, arctic cold will follow behind it across the Plains and Midwest. The Southeast will not be nearly as cold and a second system is likely to form somewhere in that vicinity early next week. More cold fronts may move through at least the northern portions of the country mid and late next week, reinforcing some of that cold air and bringing additional precipitation as a persistent trough remains near the Hudson Bay.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...87 AT WEST KENDALL-TAMIAMI, FL AND HOLLYWOOD, FL AND 13 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FLORIDA CITY, FL

LOW THU...4 BELOW ZERO AT 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLAR, MT AND 25 MILES WEST OF OPHEIM, MT AND 2 MILES EAST OF WATFORD CITY, ND AND KILLDEER, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST THURSDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 0.9 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the East with a secondary trough entering the Northern Plains.

Throughout the weekend, a trough will deepen in the Central U.S., providing a strong storm system to the Plains and Midwest. Cold air will follow the Central U.S. trough next week while another trough from western Canada digs south into the Plains in early December. Widespread rain could develop across the Southern Delta and Southeast with a cold front early next week.

The U.S. and European models are beginning to show agreement on the track of systems through early next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a big storm moves through the eastern half of the country this weekend, arctic cold will follow behind it across the Plains and Midwest. The Southeast will not be nearly as cold and a second system is likely to form somewhere in that vicinity early next week. More cold fronts may move through at least the northern portions of the country mid and late next week, reinforcing some of that cold air and bringing additional precipitation as a persistent trough remains near the Hudson Bay.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold air has been persistent throughout the area after an early week system pushed through. Even more cold air will move in behind another system that will move through Friday and Saturday. Again, heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities. Additional waves of snowfall will push across the area next week, but they may be lighter than this weekend's snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A significant winter storm system will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds are all possible. Northern Nebraska has the best chance at accumulating snow on Saturday. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will send most winter wheat areas dormant as we usher in winter. Another system will move through early next week that may have impacts as well, but the forecast is for milder conditions by the end of next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought areas of heavy snow to parts of the region on Wednesday, along with a burst of much cooler air that will turn on the lake-effect snow through Friday. Another big system will move into the region late Friday and continue east through the weekend. More widespread heavy snow is forecast with this system, especially from Iowa through Michigan. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well, but models are struggling with their development. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River but are still low. However, heavy rain earlier this week and more coming up will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend with another a couple of days later.

These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue in central and northern Brazil into next week. A front will move through the south Sunday and Monday, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall, below-normal rainfall is in the forecast through early December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture remains high across the country, but the country is in a drier pattern. Despite that, a front will move through with scattered showers this weekend and some areas may see heavy rain.

Otherwise, dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur, but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions with time.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue to move across the continent in waves through next week, which has been the case for several weeks now. That has been favorable for winter grains. Some areas in the east have seen significant snowfall, and recent cool temperatures have pushed some areas into dormancy across the central and north. Very few areas on the continent are in poor shape heading into winter.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe will only produce limited showers through next week, and mostly across the northwest again. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, which should have occurred for most areas by now, but is probably not found in anything other than far northern areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Patchy rainfall has been the norm for the last several weeks, leading to mixed conditions. Systems will largely favor the southeast through early next week with Western Australia remaining mostly dry. Wheat and canola harvest continues to increase, but soil moisture is lacking in some areas for the cotton and sorghum crops, with planting ongoing between showers.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall drier conditions continue to favor the remaining corn and soybean harvest in the northeast. Drier weather recently has allowed soggy soils to drain in central China, being more favorable for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. However, some tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Koto could nudge into the south over the weekend and early next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Lake-effect snow. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered rain and snow Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated snow Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Lake-effect snow Friday. Scattered rain and snow Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered rain and snow Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Thursday-Sunday, below to well below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Friday, below to well below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal west and below normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south through Sunday, near normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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