Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A colder and more volatile weather pattern setting up this week in the U.S., and overall drying conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

BLAST OF COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEK, BIG WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers ended on Friday in the Midwest. Another system will spread rain through the region on Monday, which will immediately be followed by a clipper system for Tuesday and Wednesday. That system will bring through some breezy winds and snow, along with a burst of much cooler air and lake-effect snow through Thanksgiving. The region should see a major winter system this weekend. While models are still working out the details, there is potential for just about everything including severe weather, heavy rain, snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. That will be followed by a big burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

BIG WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moved into the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday with scattered showers and some thunderstorms that continues Monday. A stronger cold front will push through on Tuesday with a burst of cooler air, but will setup a significant winter storm system that will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Models are working out the details, but heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions are all possible. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will send most areas dormant as we usher in winter. A couple of storms may follow for next week that may have massive impacts as well.

COLD AIR SETTLING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WITH HEAVY SNOW

It was dry but breezy and warm over the weekend in the Northern Plains. A system will move through like a clipper on Monday and Tuesday, causing a big drop in temperature and a band of heavy snow across the north. Cold air will remain in place the rest of the week, but will be significantly colder behind another system that will move through Friday and Saturday. Heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities.

SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER, MORE RAIN NEEDED

Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River after last week's rainfall but are still low. However, some showers will move through with a system Monday into Tuesday that will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend and several others may follow for early December. These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL SLOWLY DRYING OUT

A front across northern Brazil filled in with showers over the weekend across central Brazil. Showers should occur here throughout the week. A front will move through the south over the weekend, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall, below-normal rainfall is in the forecast heading into December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

ARGENTINA TRENDING DRIER DESPITE STRONGER FRONT THIS WEEKEND

Soil moisture remains high in Argentina for early this growing season. However, the weather pattern is much drier. A front will move through with scattered showers Friday and Saturday, otherwise dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur, but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions in the country.

EUROPE REMAINS IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN

Scattered showers moved through a lot of Europe over the weekend, which continues for most areas this week as well. Some areas in the east have seen significant snowfall, and recent cool temperatures have pushed some areas into dormancy across the north. Very few areas on the continent are in poor shape heading into winter.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently, including over the weekend. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe will only produce limited showers this week, and mostly across the northwest again. Above-normal temperatures are slowing the progress toward dormancy, which should have occurred for most areas by now, but is probably not found in anything other than far northern areas.

SHOWERS LIMITED IN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through eastern areas of Australia over the weekend, but were patchy and missed a lot of areas. Showers will be limited again this week as well. Wheat and canola harvest continues to increase, but soil moisture is lacking in some areas for the coming cotton and sorghum crops, which starts up shortly.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.