DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the Southwest. A small trough is found in western Canada and another one is moving through the Pacific toward the Southwest. The Southwest trough will move eastward in tandem with the Canadian trough for the rest of the week, but the ridge will remain.

The Pacific trough will move into the Southwest to replace it and then move eastward early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and push through the country around Thanksgiving. Another big trough is forecast to move into the West over the weekend as our pattern going into early December turns generally colder and more volatile.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar at the moment, but have been having trouble staying consistent for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system in the Southwest this weekend will move into the Southern Plains on Sunday and Monday, shifting northeast through the country early next week. That will combine with a major push of cold air coming down from Canada that should spread through the country next week. There is still some uncertainty to the timing of all of this, but a big burst of arctic air is on the horizon for the end of the month. Additional bursts of arctic cold are forecast to move through in early December.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...93 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...5 AT 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUTSEN, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...CINCINNATI, OH 1.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the Southwest. A small trough is found in western Canada and another one is moving through the Pacific toward the Southwest. The Southwest trough will move eastward in tandem with the Canadian trough for the rest of the week, but the ridge will remain.

The Pacific trough will move into the Southwest to replace it and then move eastward early next week. Another trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and push through the country around Thanksgiving. Another big trough is forecast to move into the West over the weekend as our pattern going into early December turns generally colder and more volatile.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar at the moment, but have been having trouble staying consistent for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system in the Southwest this weekend will move into the Southern Plains on Sunday and Monday, shifting northeast through the country early next week. That will combine with a major push of cold air coming down from Canada that should spread through the country next week. There is still some uncertainty to the timing of all of this, but a big burst of arctic air is on the horizon for the end of the month. Additional bursts of arctic cold are forecast to move through in early December.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers are moving through on Wednesday with a system passing through Canada. Otherwise, drier conditions are forecast until a significant cold front moves through early next week. Temperatures are forecast to take a massive dive behind that front and a much colder pattern is forecast to continue into December. That will shut down any winter wheat and start to freeze soils a bit early this year. Any areas with fieldwork to do have limited time in which to do so.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A stronger system will move in on Wednesday with widespread rainfall through Friday. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Yet another system is forecast to move in early next week with more showers. Some areas of heavy rain should be favorable for building soil moisture and reducing drought. Though temperatures are forecast to be quite warm into next week, a big blast of arctic air is forecast to move through behind next week's system, though to what degree is still being worked out by models. Indications are that additional bursts of cold are likely for December that may come with some significant precipitation that includes snow, meaning that the window for getting fieldwork done is shutting down, particularly across the north.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through on Tuesday. A much bigger system will move through Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation, though mostly across the south. Another system is forecast for early next week that could bring through some significant precipitation as well. That could improve soil moisture and reduce some of the drought in the region. However, very cold air is forecast to push through behind it for Thanksgiving in the start of a much colder pattern going into December. The colder pattern will shut down opportunities for field work a little early across the north.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. Though we should see a system moving through Thursday and Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and another is forecast to do so early next week, that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region.

This could be the start of a more favorable weather pattern for the winter, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought a wave of heavy rainfall earlier this week, but has stalled in the north. Showers will slowly build there back to the south through central Brazil later this week and weekend.

Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture remains high for early this growing season. However, an overall drier pattern is starting to set up for the country. Fronts are still forecast to move through the country, and one will do so Thursday into Friday, but they are forecast to produce only patchy showers. It may take some time and be slow to occur, but soil moisture may slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue across much of the continent going into next week. Temperatures are colder now though and some of these showers will fall as snow, which could be heavy later this week and weekend from Austria into southern Poland. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A couple of systems are moving through this week, but are forecast to produce limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. The same goes for next week as well. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy across the north.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture conditions are still largely mixed across the country. Showers are favoring western areas this week while eastern areas are only getting some isolated showers this weekend. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Dry conditions are largely forecast through the end of November, helpful across the north but detrimental for the south.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday.

Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday, north Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers north. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north through Thursday, near normal Friday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.